SPY>110 = No Turd
SPY<110 = Turd

/s/ TurdinthePunchBowl

WITNESSETH SIGN BELOW

This is one of those moments where I measure the size of my sack to make sure it isn’t bigger than my brain. I am sick and tired of this market for I do not like to play with toys that are meant for the schizophrenic and insane. If that means I can’t hack it to you, so be it. But, I need a vacation. I was going to go on vacation some time ago, but got sucked back into trading this insanity. This time, I want to make sure I can have said extended vacation.

So, I have chosen to “go big or go greyhound”. I have loaded up on TZA in disgusting size just now between 33.31 and 33.35. I have no other position and no remaining cash and I care to not have one. That’s right, I am 100% TZA. I am looking for consecutive 200 pt down days allowing TZA to balloon in price. This is the largest trade I have ever made or will ever make. There is no risk management, the rewards are plenty and the sanity is absent. I do not care. The market and I are going into a cage fight. It’s me or this market. Only one of us will leave alive.

We haven’t even been rallying for two trading days yet. There’s plenty of upside that can be found still. Albeit, yesterday was a large run, but bear in mind the scope of the downward trajectory that got us to that point. As for The PPT; it’s not like that device is some sort of linear relationship. If there’s one thing I’ve observed, it’s that the Hybrid Score can easily settle without marking a turning point in the market. It hasn’t hit 3.1, however close it came to it.

Keep your calm, or risk being weeks early.

This morning I sold the shares of APC I purchased on the twenty fifth of August for $50.22, from $46.52. While I’d have no problem getting stuck holding those shares, along with my core position, sometimes you just need to lock in the quick buck while the opportunity is easiest. That’s especially true when you’re heavy in margin.

Student Loan Corporation, regardless of this rally, has commenced with deteriorating, down 2% today. There will be no rest for the wicked, or so it seems. I’m glad I added to my short in as greedy and opportunistic a fashion as I did. Let the short side gains continue.

I have not laid out my holdings or their proportions in too long. Permit me to do so now:

29% APC, 17% FAZ, 1% FTR, 24% MGM, 14% NMM, 15% NRP, 15% PM, 13% short STU, 20% TLP, 12% VXX, and 21% VZ.

That’s a grand marginal total of 181% my core value. Bear in mind that just under 30% of that is hyper-inverse leverage, and my short with STU enhances that hedging substantially.

Originally, I had intended to merely settle my margin and ride out the run down. Then, I would add back my margin, making great sums off the next side of the recovery. However, I changed my mind not long thereafter.

Magnificent volatility such as this comes around once in a lifetime. Playing the stable holdings game is just too boring and I wouldn’t have benefitted from all the relative peaks and bottoms that this remarkably choppy market has provided us.

Soon, I will look to sell off my surplus MGM shares, and add to FAZ and VXX. Soon, but not now…

Update: It should be mentioned that I hold a large position in physical silver, which is roughly one third of my net worth. However, constantly mentioning the troy ounces and their fluctuating worth, day in and out, is very boring. Just remember it, going forward, in case I pull the subject out of nowhere.

This ought to be good for another 10 points.

Freely admitting that this is largely meaningless in the face of tomorrow’s numbers, but my (n00b) gut feeling is that if I had to choose, I’d say we’re more like in the first leg up of the early July phase than second. So, since we haven’t hit my “strategy” goal of about $39 on TNA (came close, though ), I’m holding. I donno – I’m betting that after a really bad Aug, and better than expected econ data so far, the downside is limited short term.

Again, just a bet by a newbie, nothing more

Don’t ask me why people are bidding up Retail Reits stocks but the charts are telling you to either go long, go long or hmmmmmmmmmm… go long. (Cherry picked a list of names that are setting up for a BTFO trade.

Below are some of my favorites setups from my list (yes Cherry picking after Cherry picking).

SPG

EPR

FRT

MAC

O

With a large hybrid move today (the largest in history of PPT), here is the past performance for the 5 days immediately after moves where the hybrid increased by at least 20%.

You see the daily SPY high, relative to the SPY closing price on the day of the large move (this is an attempt to give you an idea of how much MORE SPY might move, based on the past performance).

Hybrid jump from 2.24 on 2009-05-15 to 2.91 on 2009-05-18 (SPY close 91.23) : +29.9%
On 2009-05-19 SPY high was 91.97 (+0.8% over 91.23
On 2009-05-20 SPY high was 92.80 (+1.7% over 91.23
On 2009-05-21 SPY high was 89.80 (-1.6% over 91.23
On 2009-05-22 SPY high was 90.00 (-1.3% over 91.23
On 2009-05-26 SPY high was 91.56 (+0.4% over 91.23

Hybrid jump from 2.39 on 2009-07-10 to 2.87 on 2009-07-13 (SPY close 90.10) : +20.1%
On 2009-07-14 SPY high was 90.69 (+0.7% over 90.10
On 2009-07-15 SPY high was 93.51 (+3.8% over 90.10
On 2009-07-16 SPY high was 94.51 (+4.9% over 90.10
On 2009-07-17 SPY high was 94.32 (+4.7% over 90.10
On 2009-07-20 SPY high was 95.29 (+5.8% over 90.10

Hybrid jump from 2.39 on 2009-12-31 to 2.98 on 2010-01-04 (SPY close 113.33) : +24.7%
On 2010-01-05 SPY high was 113.68 (+0.3% over 113.33
On 2010-01-06 SPY high was 113.99 (+0.6% over 113.33
On 2010-01-07 SPY high was 114.33 (+0.9% over 113.33
On 2010-01-08 SPY high was 114.62 (+1.1% over 113.33
On 2010-01-11 SPY high was 115.13 (+1.6% over 113.33

Hybrid jump from 2.61 on 2010-05-26 to 3.20 on 2010-05-27 (SPY close 110.76) : +22.6%
On 2010-05-28 SPY high was 110.72 (-0.0% over 110.76
On 2010-06-01 SPY high was 109.95 (-0.7% over 110.76
On 2010-06-02 SPY high was 110.34 (-0.4% over 110.76
On 2010-06-03 SPY high was 111.06 (+0.3% over 110.76
On 2010-06-04 SPY high was 109.33 (-1.3% over 110.76

Hybrid jump from 2.43 on 2010-06-09 to 2.99 on 2010-06-10 (SPY close 109.15) : +23.0%
On 2010-06-11 SPY high was 109.75 (+0.5% over 109.15
On 2010-06-14 SPY high was 111.12 (+1.8% over 109.15
On 2010-06-15 SPY high was 112.10 (+2.7% over 109.15
On 2010-06-16 SPY high was 112.42 (+3.0% over 109.15
On 2010-06-17 SPY high was 112.33 (+2.9% over 109.15

Hybrid jump from 2.41 on 2010-07-21 to 3.04 on 2010-07-22 (SPY close 109.46) : +26.1%
On 2010-07-23 SPY high was 110.57 (+1.0% over 109.46
On 2010-07-26 SPY high was 111.67 (+2.0% over 109.46
On 2010-07-27 SPY high was 112.29 (+2.6% over 109.46
On 2010-07-28 SPY high was 111.66 (+2.0% over 109.46
On 2010-07-29 SPY high was 111.82 (+2.2% over 109.46

Hybrid jump from 2.45 on 2010-07-30 to 2.96 on 2010-08-02 (SPY close 112.76) : +20.8%
On 2010-08-03 SPY high was 112.77 (+0.0% over 112.76
On 2010-08-04 SPY high was 113.11 (+0.3% over 112.76
On 2010-08-05 SPY high was 112.91 (+0.1% over 112.76
On 2010-08-06 SPY high was 112.57 (-0.2% over 112.76
On 2010-08-09 SPY high was 113.18 (+0.4% over 112.76

Hybrid jump from 2.29 on 2010-08-16 to 2.95 on 2010-08-17 (SPY close 109.59) : +28.8%
On 2010-08-18 SPY high was 110.38 (+0.7% over 109.59
On 2010-08-23 SPY high was 108.57 (-0.9% over 109.59
On 2010-08-24 SPY high was 106.39 (-2.9% over 109.59
On 2010-08-25 SPY high was 106.34 (-3.0% over 109.59
On 2010-08-26 SPY high was 106.58 (-2.7% over 109.59

Hybrid jump from 2.37 on 2010-08-26 to 2.88 on 2010-08-27 (SPY close 106.86) : +21.5%
On 2010-08-30 SPY high was 106.91 (+0.0% over 106.86
On 2010-08-31 SPY high was 105.98 (-0.8% over 106.86

So you see five times this led to moves higher by at least another 1.6%, twice the market stayed put, once (few weeks ago) the market collaped, and the last time there isn’t enough data to tell (too recent a data point).

As always, nothing that happened in the past can reliably predict the future, but running on probabilities of past behavior, I’m not selling on Thursday

What a disappointment. Not just in the product, but for my NFLX short. As expected, NFLX is programmed into the new device. I had hoped that AAPL wouldn’t just roll over and put Netflix in the driver’s seat for streaming movies, but they did. It is strange to me that Apple would cooperate with Netflix in taking revenue away from it’s online store (as little as there is), but it seems to have happened. I think some possible explanations are that Apple knows the Apple TV is a weak product or they are getting a piece of the action from Netflix. My bet is a little of both.

But when looking at what the device does for NFLX it has to be little. Netflix already can already be streamed through these devices: http://www.netflix.com/NetflixReadyDevices
What good is another one? The potential benefit for NFLX is that they may gain subscribers through Apple TV sales. A $99 product that offers nothing new and does nothing better than a free feature on an XBOX or PS3 has me betting is that the Apple TV flunks again and this NFLX pop is sold back down.

Since we always look for patterns… I choose to remain optimistic

Plus, the Russell 2000 has a LOT of room above to move into:

It finally arrived! Today’s action is as if a pregnant woman just plopped an overdue 18 pound baby into a punchbowl sending everything into violent tidal waves. However, take note of what happens after the waves hit the sides of the punchbowl, they come on back, even more violently and squeeze the heads of longs that have bought into this pop. It’s a pop, do not think we are out of the economic doldrum woods.