Sunday, May 20th, 2012

Sorry to Harp on This But…..

9

Posted by alphadawgg at 1:37 pm
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Goldman has just declared MOS, “the best opportunity in chemicals”, and upgraded it to a buy. It also cited that investors should, “take advantage of any price weakness stemming from concerns over rising sulfur costs and transitory FX impact”.

Shorticus, be prepared to take it up the shorts.

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I feel vindicated by my buys earlier today from $81-82 .

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Update: When asked about current pricing, MOS management indicated that yesterday they contracted a shipment of phosphate (”DAP”) at $685/tonne F.O.B. Tampa, FL headed to Brazil. This is a significant mark up from the $417/tonne average for Nov Q2 prices reported earlier today. Apparently, the higher costs for sulfur, a major component in diammonium phosphate (DAP) production, are being passed on and absorbed. Definitely an indicator of strong demand. Strong demand for phosphate and potash will persist until additional capacity in the industry comes online in 2 – 3 years.

Comments

9 Responses to “Sorry to Harp on This But…..”
  1. mdawsz says:

    Good call.

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  2. Juice says:

    I flipped MOS for 7 points today. I guess I should have held it overnight but I’ll take it.

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  3. alphadawgg says:

    Nice going Juice.

    I am not a daytrader, so I’ll continue to buy and hold and take my chances that way. Fundamentals look strong.

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  4. Juice says:

    I’m not a daytrader either but I put an order in @81.00 and went out to walk the pooch. When I got back the market was taking it from behind, no vaseline, and I got filled, pun intended.

    Put in an order to sell at 88 & that got filled.

    I’m no daytrader but 10% in a few hours, in this market & I’ll book it, Danno.

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  5. alphadawgg says:

    This stock will most likely go higher now with the Goldman upgrade. Other analysts will follow the GS lead, lest they be labeled an asshat.

    Institutional ownership is still fairly low in this name. Insiders hold 65% of the stock.

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  6. JakeGint says:

    Is this the same Goldman that came out with the 100% guarantee on recession to get it’s clients in on the bounce today?

    They couldn’t have some kind of agenda, could they?

    Nice bounce, but the chart doctor’s have confirmed: “Cat still dead.”

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  7. alphadawgg says:

    Jake,
    I make it a point to look at more than just the “squiggly lines”, but granted, technical analysis spin doctors can be right in the short term.

    “The trend is your friend” applies to fundamental analysis of trends as well, not just prices. In the end, the fundamentals drive the prices, not the other way around.

    You’re looking through the rear view mirror using chart mentality. You can get into an accident that way, or miss out on an opportunity.

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  8. JakeGint says:

    Bullshit, the chart incorporates everything you know and everything the market knows.

    And right now, the market says, “ruh roh, Raggy.”

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  9. alphadawgg says:

    “the chart incorporates everything you know and everything the market knows.”

    Jake,
    If that is true, then the efficient markets hypothesis is true. Now THAT is real bullshit.

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