Loading ...These stocks have been a haven for safety and a warning regarding complacency is overdue …. Plenty of traders here have been banking coin but BEHOLD:
1) The hog-like profits being made by domestic producers will no doubt attract additional supply to this market, which has fairly low barriers to entry.
2) Bulk shipping rates have been falling sharply and may continue given the pending “recession” which could be the catylst for foreign imports resulting in either margin or production contraction.
3) Natural gas prices have been rising …. NG is one of, if not the largest expense component in the mfg of fertilizer and another concern regarding domestic producers’ profit margins.
I think that [[CF]] is the most likely of the domestic producers that would “bear” the brunt of any or all of the above and I will be buying put options very soon ….
u brave man .. momos will take this one to 140
And thats when I’ll buy the puts …. don’t think it goes that high but I’ll be watching the charts …. the Costanza Method …. Developing
While I think it’s a bad idea to short said stocks, I have to give you credit for a funny title o’ post.
Thanks but why the shitty ratings …. this is listed under stock analysis not stock picks and is intended to provide food for thought going forward …. as I said, I will be buying put options soon, I haven’t yet …. Damn, shoot the messenger cuz you don’t like the message, huh?
“The hog-like profits being made by domestic producers will no doubt attract additional supply to this market, which has fairly low barriers to entry.”
8-
I disagree. Companies like POT control a huge % of the available potash in N America. I’d say that’s a huge barrier to entry.
Also with the shortage of sulfur supplies, MOS has an advantage over other companies because it can access its sulphur reserves to produce phosphate.
>> The world’s largest exporters of potash are: Canada, Russia, Belarus, and Germany (Israel also exports a good deal of the stuff, which it extracts from the Dead Sea). <<
Per the editors of Foreign Policy:
> With the way China is growing, we know what that means: higher prices. But don’t expect the potash boom to last forever. Production is expected ramp up around the world, and that could send prices back down to Earth < http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/potash/potasmcs07.pdf