Friday, March 19th, 2010

Playing Both Sides

6

Posted by alphadawgg at 3:33 pm
1 Star2 Stars3 Stars4 Stars5 Stars (20 votes, average: 4.55 out of 5)
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Unlike The Fly, some of us are not satisfied with “resting on our laurels” and drinking rich man’s whiskey for the remainder of the calendar year—mostly because we are not up an ungodly 35% YTD.

Here’s a strategy that can work in this environment: pairs trading.

For those uninitiated, pairs trading allows you to play both sides of the market. When you do this, consider yourself kind of like a hedge fund manager, only much, much poorer.

Basically, you buy one stock in a particular sector, and then short another stock within the same sector. You can also think of this as a market neutral-like strategy. The goal is to bank coin on both sides, viz., have the long position go up and the short position fall lower in price.

However, unlike a purely long or a purely short position, a profit can be made as well, by the spread working in your favor. That is to say, if the long position outperforms the short or verse vicesa [sic]. The trade can be “successful” even if both rise, or both fall, or if one rises or falls faster than the other.

The key is to do accurate relative strength analysis because profits depend on your ability to take advantage of the divergences between two stocks within the same sector. Think of it as a “hedged” trade where the strategy is to take advantage of a technically strong stock and a technically weak stock.

The reason I bring this to your attention (aside from being a generous and merciful individual) is that this strategy can be useful in this type of market that produces wide swings, with many names going lower, but others merely pulling back with the market to support levels, or vice versa.

My basic rules to structure this trade are:

Long:

1.) The stock must have at least three positive technical attributes, one of which must be RS. You pick the others that you use most often or feel most comfortable with. I happen to simply use moving averages and supply/demand from a P&F chart.

2.) The stock must be in an overall uptrend and above a bullish support line.

3.) Emphasize stocks that have strong RS to the market and peer group.

Short:

 1.) The stock should have less than 3 positive technical attributes. Zero is obviously best.  

2.) The stock is in an overall negative trend and the price is below a bearish resistance line.

3.) Emphasis on stocks that have weak RS to the market and peer group.

That said, here is one pair trade in the retail sector:

Long TJX:

Short AEO:

Compare the two relative to the Consumer Discretionary ETF, XLY:

Now that you have an idea of a “pair trade”, play around, do some research and go out and be profitable.

Disclaimer: Profits are not guaranteed by FDIC, MBIA,  AMBAC or any other insurance company. Not that it really matters if they were, anyway. 

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Comments

6 Responses to “Playing Both Sides”
  1. buylo says:

    yes, but it seems to me you first have to be a very good stock picker which is not that easy since even big time mutual fund managers have a very hard time to outperform an index fund, So, what can you do? Join VectorVest or Gorilla Trades, etc? buy short and long etf’s like the Fly? Opinions appreciated.

  2. Woodshedder says:

    Alpha, I am learning pairs trading, and although I am in no way an expert, I think there is a better way.

    What I have been researching is to find two stock or two indexes that are higly correlated, thorughout a significant period of time.

    At some point, a situation will develop where the stocks do not move in concert with each other, as in the past.

    For example, take a correlated pair, XXX and YYY. Stock XXX may move up sharply while stock YYY moves down. The strategy then has you go long YYY and short XXX. The trade is closed when the statistical correlation returns to the historical mean.

    Hope this helps.

  3. alphadawgg says:

    buylo, VV is helpful at times, although a black box-like solution. There is no substitute for being a good stock picker. It’s not easy for most and doesn’t come naturally. You have to work at it, that is all I can say.

    Wood,
    Thanks for that. I’ll do some more research on your ideas.

  4. Prospectus says:

    Alpha,

    Great post! The idea is great, but how do you handle when the trade moves against you? This type of relative valuation trade is what poleaxed LTCM, because they didn’t know how to cut a loser. Just because things are out of alignment doesn’t mean that they can’t get MORE out of alignment, hitting you on both the long and the short side at the same time.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m not bashing the strategy. I actually think it’s a terrific idea, especially in this environment, as you said. I’m just wondering how you would suggest managing risk with this play.

  5. alphadawgg says:

    Keep a vigilant eye on the spread. Use a hard dollar stop or position sizing to manage the risk.

    Close out the pair trade as one position, taking into account the net from the spread between the two.

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