Behold My Master Weekly Planby hattery on May 19th, 2008 at 2:23 am |
After putting some stocks to work on the Bullish side last couple weeks, retreating back to ”Delta Neutral” is the theme for this week. Although I take profits in some areas, overall I am continuing to put more cash to work now. I like the VIX finally coming down, making it easier to buy more options without having to pay for the volitility, however the VIX is still downtrending, so if you’re worried about the VIX crashing down harder, making your options lose value, you might want to consider betting against the VIX via put options as a hedge. That way, you can feel more confortable loading up on the options. It’s up to you. Otherwize if you want to bet on volitility falling, or hedge against it, you can just sell some options.
With all of that said I will watch [[TBSI]] very closely, day by day and look to take profits. I believe tommorrow will be a profit taking day either way. Just can’t become a pig here, but I might just swap out/roll over my calls. I will be paying close attention to both [[DRYS]] and [[EXM]], both of which have earnings. My belief is that they both crush earnings like TBSI did, but after hanging onto both DRYS and TBSI for so long, I didn’t want to get any more overweight shipping. But if you’re looking to buy a name right now without worrying about earnings, [[EGLE]] is probably the one to buy now after it’s Friday breakout to new highs. Otherwize you might just want to wait and look for EXM above 60, or DRYS at new highs. Don’t expect either to happen, but don’t be surprised either.
[[CSIQ]] Float of 11M getting consumed, so we should continue to see post earnings drift. With that said, I don’t know how you can have the stomach to buy it right here. [[SOLF]] would have been a nice addition to follow up the gain in CSIQ, but SOLF has earnings coming up Wednesday, and if you can still manage to get it at 21, I’d consider it. But right now, I think the real play to look at in solar is [[LDK]]. Should be a nice straddle here, but a bet on the upside is where I would guess.
[[HANS]] short term is a very nice bear flag, long term might not be bad, so maybe you want to play a spread and sell a June or July call and buy a Dec 08 call. Personally I’m just playing the short term a July 08 put. And with my put, I’m not going to sit on it very long if it doesn’t move. If no move, I’ll probably be out by the end of this week.Â
[[psa]] buy puts on this bear flag
[[Cake]] is a nice triangle to straddle, [[ach]] as well.
I like a pair trade betting on [[USB]] and [[wfc]] longer term, and you can take your pick of the crap to bet against. Ask the Fly for some ideas, he’s excellent at finding the financial crap of the world to short. [[MTB]] and [[LEH]] seems to stick out.
[[AKS]] is a great way to bet on the rocket ship made of steel that hasn’t yet realized there’s a direction called “down”.
Finally, Oil is getting pretty significant. I still like to squeeze a weekly trade in here getting in and out before the end of this week
[[APA]] looks awesome, [[DVN]] also looks great. Meanwhile [[VLO]] is a short at 49.
But as early as by the end of the week I’m scaling back profits on energy, and thinking about buying some longer term calls on [[DUG]] (OCT 2008 looks to be the latest one they have) and Jan 09 puts on [[USO]], as crazy as it sounds. I will buy once here, and if it climbs, try again to add position the following week. If into June oil prices aren’t lower than my 2nd purchase, I’m not even going to try it again.




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