If You Believeby Green Writer on June 5th, 2008 at 9:14 am |
(4 votes, average: 5 out of 5)
Loading ...Trichet of the ECB recently said there remains serious risk to global growth. In a statement this morning, (afternoon in Europe,) Trichet was concerned about inflation and thought it may moderate in mid 2009.
When inflation runs away from you it is a very troubling time getting it back under control. With speculation that the real rate of inflation is running between 6-10% we may be looking at a scenario that is hard to control. I believe this is supported by the ECB’s reluctance to lower interest rates in the face of a world wide liquidity crunch.
At any rate, I have been suggesting that to protect your portfolio you need to have multiple hedges to guard against inflation. It is up to you to decide how much you will hedge; generally no more than 5-10%Â of your portfolio is recomended.
At this time we have had a nice sell off or correction in oil which is sitting on the 50 day moving average. As well gold has pulled back to about the 20 day moving average.
This would be a decent level to begin a position if you do not have one. The next support level on oil would be around $110-$115 a barrel and around $840-$850 an oz. for gold.
Remember to build a position over time rather than price.
If you get nervous, you might want to stop out if the S&P breaks 1,425-1,434 on heavy volume for at least 3-4 days on a closing basis or if the dollar closes above 80 on its index for at least 3-4 days.
GLT
by Green Writer
who me nervous? this market can go either way and looking like it wants to go lower although today is up dow +120, but its only 10 am Chicago. There’s got to be a way to make money without suffering palpitations. Maybe, wait for a trend up or down to confirm and re-confirm. Trend might be only for a month or two these days. Its a guessing game out there TA or not, seems to me, but what do I know.
June 5th, 2008 at 11:02 ambuylo,
My sentiments exactly. With all the confusion it is hard to jump in head first whether short, long, or hedge.
The market has been surreal to say the least. That is why I’m hedging and sitting on large blocks of cash.
I like FLR,MDR,EME,ORA,GLD,FTK,USO,UNG,SNHY,NGAS,TXCO,& OMNI
looking at ADM as a bottom fish soon.
Oh I still have small pieces of SRS & SKF.
Peace
June 5th, 2008 at 11:19 amI’m liking-watching COST, BIDU, CNQR,TXI, DIS, HAR but we’ll see what happens this afternoon, I expect the jobs numbers tomorrow will be good and market to rally. Would I bet on it? Nope, done it too often and was wrong. I’ll wait for things to confirm. Everything else is gambling which I like but odds are not so good. Should have figured today would be up, after 4 down days in a row on the dow and 3 out of 4 down days on the S&P and 2 out of 4 days down on Naz.
June 5th, 2008 at 11:56 ambuylo,
Funny you mention CNQR…a buddy of mine bought 500k shares below a dollar and still holds 200k to this day.
GLT
June 5th, 2008 at 12:10 pmGW, why do you waste yr time talking to small investors? ;>)
June 5th, 2008 at 12:28 pmI do not consider talking to anyone a waste of time unless they continually spew ideas or beliefs that I can not agree with. Even then i try to understand what makes them believe or act in certain things or ways.
When I was a kid in NYC my friends would say why do you waste your time talking to drunks and or homeless people?
I thought that this was a silly statement since most of those people were Vietnam Vets and I was trying to learn more about how and why they got there. My friends would have never known who these people were and what if anything they could learn from them.
No matter what you may think of someone, even those you feel are below your level, you can always learn from them.
I guess this is why i studied psychology, political science, and philosophy in college.
I’m interested in knowing how and why people think the way they do so that i can understand how to motivate and change minds vs being entrenched in a battle of two opposing ideas.
Who was the philosopher that thought of thesis, anti thesis, merging into sythesis?
If we do not find out where everyone is at then we continually go in circles. Those circles may rise above previous ones but how far along the path could we be if we had linearity?
June 5th, 2008 at 12:58 pm“once and a while you can get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right.”
June 5th, 2008 at 1:04 pmWhen it comes down to it, the world will never get along because of pride and a basic hatred deep down for those from a different tribe.
We’ll always have the Marine Corps.
June 5th, 2008 at 1:06 pmLOL….Semper Fi….
You see I do not believe this. I believe the enviornment we are brought up in creates or fosters those ideas.
Take two orphans. They can grow up as brothers of different ethnic backgrounds and learn to love one and other.
The same two put into respective enviornments that foster hatred for one race or another will keep them at odds for life.
Look at a new program in Israel that creates common bonds
between Israelis and Palistinians children. As children they play care and help one and other. If left in that enviornment they will grow up to be friends, business partners, etc.
However since they go back to their respective sides they grow up to hate one and other.
There is no real reason for that except the lessons being taught to hate or dislike etc,
Lets face it genetics has proven that all men came from 4 bloodlines out of the African continent. That means we all have a 25% chance of being related.
Unfortunately there are some who will not accept this science due to what is engrained in thier heads.
Look at another example…why are we not all serial killers? wife beaters?, rapists, etc…Answer is (aside from chemical imbalance) we were all not abused as children. Those who are abused have great tendencies to continue abuse. For some that abuse with the chemical imbalance leads to becoming a serial killer.
June 5th, 2008 at 1:18 pmGW, a society is only as strong as it’s weakest link. You and I can’t do anything about that. The human heart is basically evil and full of poison. It’s part of the genetic code built in. It just manifests itself in different ways.
Forgive me, but I’m a cynic about “we are the world” thinking.
June 5th, 2008 at 1:25 pmI understand your position…It is the instinct to compete and control that puts us this way.
While these qualities can be viewed as poison, it is also what gives us our edge over one and other.
The point is we do not need miracles to allow for changes in society.
We need understanding.
I’m thankfull for pure evil so I can learn what the boundry is. Without boundries there would be no line to cross.
I like to think of it as Eastern philoshers do with Yin and Yang.
All in all I do not believe in “we are the world ” as a way of life, but to respect and understand this would allow for a better society.
Man is still young and while our history suggests alot of chaos, hatefulness, and violence: these are the seeds to understanding a new history to be written some day.
You can not expect a child to fight 15 rounds with Mike “bite your ear off” Tyson…but you can expect a child to learn what moves would be successful to try and take Tyson to the mat. As that child grows he can eventually take mike to the mat.
June 5th, 2008 at 1:49 pm