Hahaha, let’s get the laughs out now. And yes, I’m telling you you’ve got to play for both teams but I’m not talking about brothels and brokeback mountains. I’m talkin’ about the bears and the bulls, baby! Fact of the matter is that to choose one individual thought process is to practice folly. By being 100% bearish you’re always seeking the negative and discounting the positive while being a permabull is the opposite. Whether your glasses are rose-colored or shit-colored I think it’s time you put on a pair of regular sunglasses and looked objectively at our current economic situation. Common sense is one of the top three vital attributes you must exercise to be successful in the long term or wildly successful in the short term.

If you read this blog (IBankCoin.com) chances are you’ve got some background on what’s happening so I’ll keep it simple.

STRIKE ONE
Residential real estate sucks and is getting worse. Home owners won’t lower their prices enough to sell so no houses are selling. Banks holding foreclosed properties haven’t even begun to tap into the inventory for sale because of beaurocratic bullspit. AND prices continue to decline, which in turn causes more inventory to build up and prices to fall even further. Recommendation if you’re selling your house: take the haircut now or wait 8-10 years to get the value back.

STRIKE TWO
The credit crisis. ‘Nuff said.

STRIKE THREE
The Tampa Bay Devil Rays are in 1st place! What is that shit? Go BoSox! Oh yeah, and commodity prices are higher than Cypress Hill backstage at a Snoop Dogg concert.

Last Fall if you were to step back and take a look at the big picture you would have noticed something was terribly amiss. In the past a slowdown in residential real estate was enough to bring about a recession. So too was a large increase in commodity prices or a contraction in the availability of credit/capital. Now we’ve got all three strikes listed above and each one is maxed out (or getting there). So shame on you if you didn’t expect the bull to become a bear. How arrogant we were as a nation of bulls to think that our economy was soooo strong it could withstand such a negative economic blast. Barring any drastic governmental intervention we’re only just beginning to bite into this economic mistress. Next time stop being so damn optimistic and infuse a tiny bit of realism into your approach. For those of you who did play the short side (or raised cash) kudos to you for being able to play for both teams. However moving forward all of you bears need to be wary of a return to power of the bulls.

Now that we’re officially a bear market it’s time to start paying attention for the signs of the reversal. I love reading about these “experts” who come out with exorbitant predictions. The S&P 500 will be at 800 by the end of 2008? The Dow was supposed to hit 15 - 20,000 before stopping too, according to analysts. I believe gold was supposed to break 1,500 before falling back through 1,000 for a while there as well. Every time the analysts and experts who are visible, vocal, and public about their predictions begin to make absurd claims in one direction or the other a reversal is somewhat imminent. Back to now. Play the swings on our declines and watch for the reversal because after the fall we’re taking it could come quick. I won’t sit here and try to predict it because it’s impossible to do with any certainty. However those that utilize the brain they’ve been given can figure it out to a certain degree of accuracy. Be a bull? Be a bear? Nah, be a bearull and roll over the pigs as you slaughter them.