Dodge?by DSB on July 13th, 2008 at 11:56 pm |
I think the last chance out of dodge may be short lived… or past us.
My opinion is that a certain amount of damage has already been done. A portion of the investing population, right now, has already decided that they are done with the fuckery - and they are going to cut bait tomorrow or next week. This goes for individuals, investment managers, the risk appetite for large lending deals, etc. from some degree to another, a portion of people are done playing with this bullshit fire, because they have lost trust. There must be a ripple from what happened on Friday, soon, and I think it’s really obvious.
This is not such a slow motion market anymore, with the power of the internet educating people en-masse. The whole game moves faster now, while it loses correlation/sensitivity to traditionally fundamental market forces (bad news/good news). Perspective is off. I think smart money is watching the strength of the dollar, and diversifying some of their dough into alternate forms and locations.
What do scared people have to lose if they cut bait now and they’re wrong…. upside? For peace of mind, after a certain point, absolutely. People will hunker down, as their tolerance for this global shitstorm weakens. They will convince themselves that they will hang out in cash for 3 years, and that they will make it back through hard work and investing when things get better.
People may need to survive inflation with that money, and then they will need to fight for their jobs when all of this turns into deflation. Watch the velocity of money. Keep those skills sharp people. At the end of the day, this is a huge, global, economic contraction, occurring at the same time as a geopolitical pressure cooker wreaks havoc on the price of commodities.
Upside? Maybe some short term fuckery. People aren’t that stupid. This is some bank run shit. 10,000 ppl losing money is no joke.
People will realize what the Gov bailing out FNM/FRE will do to the dollar, implicitly, and they will shift away from it. They will also realize, as others have pointed out, that the Fed is now implying that other institutions may be more on their own.
4 banks issued warnings fuckers. These guys are not all retards (even though Fortis couldn’t hire a competent English translator).




(10 votes, average: 4.6 out of 5)







Nice post.
Curious about that avatar. Looks more like GBS than DSB. Who exactly is DSB, btw?
July 14th, 2008 at 12:06 amThe avatar just appeared one day.
DSB was my great grandfather’s call sign in WWI, when he avoided the plague by hiding out in Romania. He spoke of some asshole named McFly who had a time machine.
July 14th, 2008 at 12:16 amI just used to work with a DSB back in the day at CSFB.
He’s some kind of bullshit tech analyst now.
___
July 14th, 2008 at 12:39 amThat avatar resembles George Hearst.
-BMH
July 14th, 2008 at 12:45 amHear, hear! Here, there! Hear that … everywhere!
yeah, good points
July 14th, 2008 at 1:06 amvery interesting analysis, kicked my brain and got me thinking.
July 14th, 2008 at 5:38 am