In my post last weekend, I mentioned that some of the models indicated a Tropical Storm might form in the central Atlantic by mid-week (last Tuesday/Wednesday). A strong tropical wave did indeed form, and for a period last Sunday, it appeared that it was well on its way to becoming Christobal. However, the system quickly weakened and has crossed the Atlantic and entered the Caribbean as a weak tropical wave. Despite modestly favorable conditions, it failed to develop, due mainly to its southerly latitude (weaker Coriolis Force=no spin) and fast forward speed.

However, things appear to be changing now.  The system has entered the western Caribbean, turned more WNW to NW, slowed down, and developed a high level of thunderstorm activity. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters flew into the storm yesterday afternoon, and found a broad area of low pressure, but were unable to find a “closed circulation,” the defining characteristic of a tropical storm. However, the thunderstorms maintained themselves overnight and a more pronounced “spin” is evident in satellite pictures. The Hurricane hunters are in the storm right now and I believe there is a good chance that they will find either a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm. Normally, I would wait until a Depression or Storm has “officially” formed before posting, but with the market closing for the weekend in an hour I thought I’d write about the situation and give folks a chance to follow me into foolishness…

Image: Current Visible Satellite Image of the Caribbean and Gulf showing the threat to the Gulf as well as a disturbance off the east coast.

If Christobal does form, the future track is a bit of a concern for residents of the gulf coast (as well as oil rigs). The model consensus turns the storm northwest and either clipping the Yucatan Peninsula or passing between it and Cuba and entering the gulf.

Image: Current Computer model tracks of the disturbance. Ignore the GFS (purple) since it failed to correctly initialize the storm.

Christobal, should it form, does not appear right now a threat to become a major hurricane, or even a hurricane, as predicted by the models. Wind Shear, an inhibiting factor, is expected to remain relatively high across the storm’s track.

Image: Wind Shear outlook through 60 hours. The black dot is an estimated location of proto-Christobal at that particular time.

And of course, the proximity to land will likely dampen any strengthening. On the other hand, the waters on the storm’s path, have an extremely high oceanic heat content, that, should the shear slacken, might allow the storm to rapidly strengthen.

Image: Current Oceanic Heat content of Caribbean and Gulf. The oranges and reds represent high heat content that provides energy to the storm.

Even if proto-Christobal never becomes a hurricane, it has the potential to track across an area rich in energy production. The model guidance tracks it slightly south of the greatest concentration of infrastructure, but the close proximity of a storm should prompt evacuations and shutdowns. Also, the track is subject to change and could very well shift north. While I hate buying natural gas as a hurricane play heading into the weekend (take a look at Hurricane Dean and NG’s performance the following Monday), I took a risk and bought UNG@49.75 this morning. As for my the other energy stocks in my portfolio, I also have a considerable position in RIG from 140.50 and a small position in CHK from 56.00.

One last thing, as shown in the below satellite map, an area of low pressure off of the east coast of Florida is becoming more organized. This system also has potential to become classified as a storm or depression in the next 12-24 horus, either before or after the storm in the gulf.  The next name on the list is “Dolly.” While it will not be a good hurricane play for NG, and will likely be gone by Monday, it has a chance to make landfall in N/S Carolina as a modest tropical storm, before heading back out to sea.

 I will update this post when/if things develop.

Disclaimer: Unlike the Fly, I do not yet have a functional time machine. Thus, these are predictions, not statements of fact, and are thus subject to change.