I’m not sure what to make of the headlines these days. Though to be perfectly frank it seems to me like we’re watching a redux of the March 17 bailout of [[BSC]].

What seems different is watching the serious corrections in commodities in the markets where commodities like Oil, Corn, Natural Gas, and Rice seem to be taking a tour southward.

Gold still is making roads higher which makes me feel like we’re in for more pain down the way. [[USO]] frenzied dash up to almost $150 has now skittered down to sub $140 causing much pain for the latter day Oil bulls.

Remember when I opined Talib’s words ‘the market takes the path which causes the most pain to the most investors’ ? Well, it looks like that day of reckoning is here. At least for a while.

Iran seems to be talking to folks so the dash up to $200 doesn’t seem so likely these days.

In other news, Kevin over at Minyanville.com is advising that ‘this is not a bottom’ amongst other things:

A Depression doesn’t run hot and fierce like some crazed meth burner. A Depression is methodical, purposeful, patient. It will build a shelter out of tree branches and newspaper, light a small, well-contained campfire and wait you out, brother. While you feed on the empty calories of denial and popcorn, it will quietly gather shards of broken dreams and fashion them into a terrible weapon of blunt force reality.

[there is some comparison between the media of the day and the actual realities, as always there is a divergence] and here is the kernel of his article

Hahaha. Kind of like today. And there it is, finally, the point. We are slowly sidling up to The Fear. With wealth and lifestyles evaporating right before our eyes, The Fear is really the only tangible thing we can hold onto. The Fear is always worse than the actualization. The Fear feeds on potentiality, unimaginable potentiality.

in another article Kevin talks about the current twin to the US situation: the Japanese Lost Decade and compares their rally back to an 80% retracement upon which it collapsed over the course of the next decade.

The Takeaway

Trade whatever but keep most of your wealth in cash is what I have been thinking. I have a few pesos and I’d like to keep them. That’s why when I do toy with the market, I’m more interested in investments that won’t break my heart if they suddenly go to $0.

Because these days, more often than seems there is a likelihood of suddenly going to 0 regardless to which side you’re own. The market is thrashing around the room like a frenzied bipolar patient who needs their thorazine.

I expect this rally to last anywhere from two weeks to two months. When it’s lured the retail investors back in then it’ll just drop like the riptide on DT’s fantastic post yesterday.

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