 | THE POSITIVESby chivasontherocks on July 31st, 2008 at 3:02 pm |
(13 votes, average: 4.23 out of 5)
Loading ...1- sentiment as measured by investors intelligence, aaii, market vane, daily sentiment index are all screaming bullish.
2- we had almost historic oversold readings at the july lows.
3-even though the dow and spx took out the march lows in dramatic fashion, the following indeces did not. comp, q’s, r2k, s&p mid cap, transports (actually up yr to date) hong kong, nikkei.
4- financials, hommies, retailers, autos, airlines are already down 60-70% + in most cases.
5- dollar made a bottom in march
6- gold made a top in march
7- imo the july top in crude will not be exceeded.
8- the fed,treasury and even congress have demontrated that they will do whatever it takes.
9- steep yield curve
10- rydex ratio very low
11-ratio of money market funds to total market cap is at all time high
12- insiders still bullish
13- stocks relative to bonds are cheap.
14- non-financial corporate balance sheets very healthy.
i continue to believe that the dow and spx will take out the highs, that crude will break par, that gold will break 800 and that the dollar will approach 80. most of these things will happen this year.
more to follow.
1 Good Point
2 Oversold can get more oversold
3 Give the other indices time, and who cares about the Nikkei
4 60 -70 % leaves another 30 to 40% to go
5 You think?
6 Yet to be seen
7 Oil has legs, and if it doesnt, $100 or $80 crude still pinches the economy
8 Have they ever been right or done something positive? Get Real
9 Good Point
10 Rydex Shmydex
11 MM can stya high, give me a positive savings rate for the US and I would agree
12 Insiders? Really? Like the guys a Merill and Lehman and Steve Wynn.
13 Stocks are cheap cuz the bonds keep defaulting
14 Balance sheets can deteriorate overnight, as we have seen
and for #15…The Fly has a time machine and is always right.
July 31st, 2008 at 3:10 pmChivas, odd, you only had one comment on that post.
Usually, as you know, you can stir up some discussion.
I think everyone is just confused, and doesn’t know what to say, or what to argue for, or against.
Me, I’m positioned long, although I still think the market goes lower, eventually.
July 31st, 2008 at 11:31 pmi hate ducati,
2- we had in many measurements historic oversold. notice the word historic.
3- so far that stands as a major non-confirmation.
4- not worth a response
5- i do
6- true
7- consumer was doing fine with $80 oil (70% of the economy
8- if they had not acted the way they did, the market might be closed today. like in 1914 market close for 6 months. so, yes, i think they did something right.
11- historically that happens at or close major market bottoms.
12- i dont mean corporate buybacks, i mean the actual insiders buying their stock. they have in general an excellent track record. i think an insider knows more about his company than you.
13- the bonds i am referring to are goverment bonds. they don’t default.
14- non-financial corporate balance sheets do not i repeat do not fall apart overnight.
15- the fly is a bright and gifted man, but is not always right, and his time machine sometimes just sometimes is in need of a tuneup.
thank you for your comments.
August 1st, 2008 at 1:25 amWood,
just trying to give a few of my reasons of why i am bullish. having said that, 80-90% of the time when you get the kind of oversold that we just witnessed, we retest or actually undercut the lows. however, it is also true that after that we have set up for a monster rally. that assumes that during the retest or undecut non-confirmations with respect to many different items are in place. because of the reasons of the post and many others, i think that will be the case.
i don’t understand what you meant in paragraph 3.
thanks for the comments
August 1st, 2008 at 1:38 amI think he meant something similar to the feeling when you have so much work to take care of, you don’t even know where to start. You presented so many points, the iBC populace does not know where to respond. Or some such.
I liked your (contrarian) viewpoints. My only concern is oil…I don’t really see what’s changing that would bring the price back down…yeah, stronger dollar, but always lots of assfuckery going on with Nigeria, Middle East, other sources…
August 1st, 2008 at 1:59 amChivas, in para 3, I meant that I thought maybe you didn’t get any responses because most people are just very confused by the markets right now. They don’t know what to argue for or against.
In the very near term, I do not think we will surpass the most recent lows. I honestly do not think we’ll even test them. However, it is a distinct possibility.
***Edit*** I didn’t see DPs comment before I posted. I meant what he said too.
August 1st, 2008 at 2:19 amWood,
thanks. i agree with the very near term. i was referring to when this move from the oversold is done.
August 1st, 2008 at 2:39 amDPeezy,
thanks.
August 1st, 2008 at 9:33 amChivas….I was worried you lost your Mojo not posting a response….!
Time will tell who is right! Trade on Brother!
August 1st, 2008 at 10:03 amGood to see you posting in the PG, Chivas.
August 1st, 2008 at 10:05 amI hate Ducati and Boca,
thank you.
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August 11th, 2008 at 12:34 pmchivasontherocks Says:
“I hate Ducati and Boca, thank you”
chivas,
In keeping with the new polite policy on this blog, you might want to re-phrase that. Your response could be misread as a declaration of angst and not an expression of gratitude, as I assume, that you intended.
Just a thought.
August 11th, 2008 at 12:38 pmI understood what he meant Alpha, however, I acknowledge your contribution with the utmost respect.
August 11th, 2008 at 1:40 pm