(15 votes, average: 4.2 out of 5)
Loading ...– A Pig Latin-speaking Raul Castro
UPDATE: Here is the latest track for Fay. Looks like a landfall somewhere near Naples as a borderline TS/Cat 1. However, the landfall point its not terribly important since the strongest winds and rain are all east of the center. Flooding will certainly be the greatest concern with the storm. Several Models are forecasting the storm to stall, or even backtrack after making landfall.
Image: Latest radar out of Miami showing heavy banding rain approaching the south coast. Also note that the most of the convection is east of the center. This assymetry might hinder the storm from becoming a hurricane before landfall, but will not assuage the flooding potential.
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Sure, there was that whole to-do with some missiles and we’ve been kind of annoyed at them for the past 50 years, but today, we owe Cuba a huge “thank you” for having drawn the short geographical straw. Tropical Storm Fay, now up to 50 mph, is going to strafe the entire island nation today with heavy rain and wind. But instead of a category 3 or 4 monster barelling into Florida next week, Fay will likely be reduced to a strong tropical storm, or perhaps a weak Cat 1, due to its extended interaction with Cuba.
Yesterday, Fay completed a crossing of the entire island of Hispaniola and survived intact, a rather remarkable feat considering the mountainous terrain it transversed. However, it is unlikely to perform the same trick twice. Early this morning, Fay briefly made a second landfall over the southern tip of Cuba before moving back offshore.
Image: Current Infrared satellite of TS Fay showing a recent blow-up of thunderstorms near the center. The storm will be making landfall in about 6-10 hours.
Even though it is no longer over land, its proximity is preventing it from rapidly getting organized. However, in recent hours, the storm is showing signs of trying to shape up with convection forming near the center, but I don’t know if it will have enough time to fully organize before it makes landfall again. Hurricane hunters recently reported a pressure of 1001 mb, a drop of 4 mb in the past 6 hours, showing that the storm is getting better organized. Regardless, the entire island will feel the effects of Fay and some areas may receive up to 12 inches of rain. Thankfully, Fay will pay for its passage through Cuba. When it emerges into the Gulf sometime tomorrow morning, I expect it to be a weaker tropical storm.
Speaking of the models, they are showing rather remarkable, and unfortunate, divergence beyond 36 hours. The GFDL, GFS, and HWRF, on the eastern side of the guidance, show a landfall between Naples and Tampa, followed by emergence into the Atlantic with a second landfall in South Carolina. The UKMET and BAMs show a landfall between Tampa and Apalachicola, while the NOGAPS and NGFDL continue to stubbornly point to landfall somewhere on the panhandle.
Image: Current model spread for TS Fay.
Personally, I am sticking to what I said last week, with a landfall somewhere north of Tampa, up towards Apalachicola. I still think that the NHC is too biased towards the eastward model solutions and that gradually they will shift the track westward and northward.
I am slightly surprised at the NHC’s intensity forecast. As of 11am, they are still calling for the storm to become an 85 mph hurricane.
Image: Official NHC track for Fay showing a landfall somewhere near Ft Myers.
Based on its extended interaction with Cuba, the marginal atmospheric conditions in the Gulf, and its currently predicted 24 hours over water, I would be somewhat surprised if it actually strengthens that much. The storm has a very small “core” around its center and these storms are more susceptible to being disrupted by land. Personally, I see a storm in the range of 65-75 mph at its Florida landfall, with a 50% chance of reaching hurricane strength. However, if the outlier NOGAPS and NGFDL solutions verify, expect a much stronger system (Cat 2 +) due to a longer stay over water. I give this a 25% chance of happening. Considering that the models have been gradually trending westward, this solution needs to be watched carefully.
Image: Track of Fay with strike probabilities of varying strengths depending on on location. Anywhere on the panhandle and the “hurricane play” may come into play.
The situation will be much clearer after Fay emerges into the Gulf. Regardless of its final intensity, flooding is likely to be the greatest threat with the storm. As it turns to the north, Fay is expected to slow down and some of the models are predicting 8+ inches. Parts of northern Florida has already seen over 8 inches of rain this week, and with the ground saturated, flooding could be a serious threat.
Image: 1 week rainfall totals for Florida. Parts of the Panhandle have received over 8 inches, leaving the ground saturated and prone to flooding, should the storm move up that way.
Hurricane Watches are in effect for Florida from just north of Tampa to Card Sound Bridge. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect on the east coast from Ocean reef to Jupiter Inlet, including Miami. Visitors in the Keys have been asked to leave.
As for the storm’s effect on oil, there is not much more to say than I said in my previous post. Shell has announced that it is evacuating 200 non-essential personal from select rigs, but no production will be shut in. There also seems to be some concern about the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), located NE of New Orleans, being shut down, but unless the NOGAPS and NGFDL solutions verify, I don’t see this happening.
Image: Probability of Tropical Storm winds affecting certain regions.
According to the above map and based on This Map of Gulf of Mexico oil/NG rigs, the eastern extent of the energy-rich region of the gulf of Mexico only has about a 10% chance of seeing tropical storm conditions. However, should the track shift onto the panhandle, the trade becomes more interesting.
Here are several useful links for anyone who wants to know more about the tropics:
Unless something rather dramatic happens, this will be my last full post on FAY, mostly because I am out of witty post titles. However, I will update this post as necessary… Future posts will also be angled more towards the market, commodities in particular…
Disclaimer: The computer models have no idea where Fay is going and they can do some trillions of calculations a second. How much better off am I?
It looks normal, but the circulation looks backwards when I watch it. This storm is a freak of nature.
I am with you- I say around Apalachicola. I doubt if it will make a Cat 1. I guess it depends on how far away from land the eye remains. I still wonder to this day if anybody found my computers which got blown out of my office windows onto US 1 in Kendall during Andrew.
Keep up the graphics through the season.
To whoever slapped 1 star to all my posts since the beginning of August, if there is a problem with a specific post, please let me know. Otherwise, thats kind of uncool. I’m sure this sort of thing happens all the time and that it wasn’t an IBC regular, but still, it’s frustrating given the time and effort involved…
It was probably a Yalie (or Elis).
Oot-Fray-Oops-Lay
It wasn’t me, I might do that to Fly, or Jake, if I was bored enough. The problem is that I just don’t care enough to make the gesture in your case, nor do I have the gumption. Not that I wouldn’t. Wait a tic… Nope, still can’t drum up the requisite spite. ::yawn::
SBB,
Trying to figure out if I should be insulted by the apathy or impressed by the bluntless. Going with the latter. And I agree. Going back into the archives is a pain, dunno who would have the gumption. I know I wouldn’t. Even if it was the Fly.
I only give “one stars” for one reason:
People whining about their freaking ratings.
Seriously, how do you guys even know there’s someone drilling you?
I just blame everything on Dino, that’s easiest.
Btw — Having gone to one of those schools that was hard to get into but then cake afterwards, I reciprocate by only give out fives, but sparingly.
You get them, fwiw.
_
Jake,
I’m sorry if I came across as whining. Vague annoyance, more like. Not a big deal. Anyways, thanks.
V5, your best bet is to check who is ahead of you in the rankings.
I bet it is Sahib who is giving you the one stars.
Trying to figure out if I should be insulted by the apathy or impressed by the bluntless…
I am both impressive and insulting. I’m glad you figured out that you could take your pick. Nice choice!
We are getting major amounts of rain right now. I would assume we are going to get our power cut off sometime today as we live on a barrier island, and every storm they cut it off “just because”.
Boca,
almost no rain here, and i am looking at the bay from my balcony, not so bad so far.
Boca, you are going to get some serious rain. The center is going to probably pass north and west of you, and since the heaviest rain is south and east of the center, you are in for it. Hopefully there won’t be too much wind though. There is currently an enormous swath heading in your generous vicinity. In addition, new guidance is suggesting that Fay may strike Florida a rather remarkable 3 times…I will post about this later if it looks more likely. Best of luck to you.
WTF:
Boca, go for a movie in N. Carolina or something.
Just wait Chivas, it’s a-coming. It’s dumped a remarkable amount of water in a very short period of time. Better get plenty of Chivas on hand.
The lower half of my front yard is flooded — a mini-lake in less than an hour. Vacation day today yeah! … oh I mean, I’m so upset, really.
Veritas5, your posts and summaries are very informative and helpful, thank you for everything.
hahaha good one Fly. Actually we’re always prepared and even have a special roof that can handle up to 150 to 160 mph winds. I just don’t go out and watch the action from inside.
Boca,
starting to get bad here now. visibility in bay is down to almost nothing.
btw, two things i never run out off, chivas and chivas.
Veritas,
if you can post the latest track, i would really appreciated. cannot log in national hurricane center web site.
All the weenies blew out the NHC and TPC site.
I’m calling a Cat 1 making landfall in Sanibel….looks to be a nice storm for the shell geeks.
P.S.: Looks like a rainmaker. Expect to see some flooding issues in S. Fl.
We’re between rain bands right now. It’s a major rain event but almost no wind, so not too bad really. Hope west coast doesn’t get hit too hard. Cheers Chivas.
OMG!!
Look into the Bay now.
It’s Godzilla coming and he’s looking to eat my vacation house.
Run for your life!!!!
Is Fay officially in the GOM?
fuck you, fly.
went out on my balcony to spit at fay, and fay spat back, with a flying coconut to my head. fuck you fay.
women can be cruel.
Some serious outer bands are coming through now in Central Florida. Cleaned out the gutters, lowered the pool, put an extra strap on the pool’s solar panels, cars are filled up, and have plenty of food and drink. Bring it on. It’s a weak storm in terms of wind but has plenty of rain.
Just replaced the battery on the generator. We got one of the whole house units during the Charlie. Best money I ever spent.
Clearly the hurricane party is at Feltersnatch’s house. He’s got the cold drinks.
do i see that bitch jogging west out into the gulf?
Meh…missed landfall by about 20 miles. Still a nice storm for the shell geeks.
Storm should refill the Big O quite well.