Fay made landfall at 5 am this morning near Naples, Fl as a 60 mph tropical storm…but the storm didn’t get the memo. In fact, since making landfall, the storm has actually strenghened, to 65 mph, and the pressure has fallen to 986 mb. A clear “eye” has become visible on both satellite and radar, as shown below.

Image: Fay developing an eye as it passes over Moore Haven, Fl. Remarkable.

 The storm passed directly over Moore Haven, Fl and they recorded a 78 mph gust, far stronger than when the storm made landfall. Frankly, this is one of the more fascinating storms that I have followed. And it is far from done. In fact, the worst still may be yet to come.

Fay will continue moving NNE and emerge off the coast of Florida somewhere north of Melbourne tomorrow morning, probably still as a tropical storm. That is when things get interesting. A trough sweeping through the east coast will miss the storm, leaving Fay in an environment with very weak steering currents and the system will likely stall just off the coast, over the warm Gulf Stream waters. At the same time, a ridge will build in to the north and east that will force Fay very very slowly back to the west.

 

Image: Large Scale steering current picture for next 7 days.

There are two schools of models on how things proceed from there: The HWRF and GFDL strengthen Fay to a weak Cat 2 (about 100 mph winds) and have a landfall somewhere on the North Florida/Georgia Coastline. The GFS, UKMET, and BAMM don’t give the storm as much time to strengthen, but take it west-southwestward back across the Florida peninsula and back into the Gulf. The storm will then have the chance to restrengthen, perhaps to hurricane strength, before making landfall somewhere on the panhandle, or even Ms/Al. The GFS has shown this solution for 5 straight runs. If this path were to verify, Fay would make landfall in Florida a record 4 times: 1) Key West   2) Naples  3)FLorida East Coast   4) Florida Panhandle.

The other models are somewhere in between, with generally weaker, and less interesting, scenarios. Overall, I give the solution predicted by the HWRF/GFDL a 30% chance of happening, the GFS et al. solution a 20% chance of happening, and a third path, less interesting and somewhere in between a 50% chance of happening. So far, the NHC is being very conservative with the forecast, as they should be, following the HWRF/GFDL solution with only modest re-strengthening to a 50 mph storm.

Image: Model Runs for Fay, all showing different responses to blocking ridge. Disregard the SHIPS intensity model.

Regardless of which path verifies, Florida is going to get a significant amount of rain over the next 5 days, and there will likely be severe flooding. Parts of south Florida (Palm Beach Co.) have already received over 10 inches of rain, but this could pale in comparison to what north florida receives.

Image: 5-Day precip forecast by the HPC. North Florida may receive 15-20 inches. Beyond 5 days, this swath will likely shift west.

 

Energy Stocks are higher on the back of rising Oil, up for the first time in 4 sessions. My positions in RIG, APA, CHK, and UNG are all confortably in the green today. I doubt this has anything to do with the tropics and is likely an oversold bounce, and the overall trend remains down. I would not be surprised to see oil continue to fall, but strongly believe it will not fall below $100/barrel. I feel comfortable with all three of my positions and will continue to hold.

Should Fay re-enter the gulf and move westward, we may need to keep an eye on it threatening some of the easternmost oil rigs.

 

Disclaimer: Occam’s Razor: “All things being equal, the simplest solution is the best.”  The simplest solution: Dissipate or out to sea.