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expect-a-bounce-in-commodities-if-short-fxp

Expect a bounce in commodities if…; short FXP

by InternationalGroupie on August 20th, 2008 at 2:53 am
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“Blah Blah Blah…everything is under control” Paulson continues. “…Chinese markets improving is good for us because” Before he said why, he was interrupted by Frank, and asked to move to answering the next question during the congressional hearings.

This always sticked as “highly suspicious” in my dictionary. I wondered today again, why would US markets benefit if Chinese markets benefit. Hmm… can it be that Paulson knew what our Chinese friends were planning. They have some much reserves, and had been gathering surplus without spending (alot) for a while ( and keeping the yuan under check) With all the inflation restrictions over time, now china finds itself OK to let it all go. When demand around the world has been in decline, china will sweep in the markets while buying all the commodities from foreign countries. Is this one of the reasons why Paulson wanted to be “friends” with china? Although most of the development contracts will go to chinese companies, what about imports from US? Are US goods “top class” now for china to import? Will they prefer to do business with US as a friendly gesture for all the years of buying and helping build china. (indirectly-w/$)

“Since chinese markets don’t short, the uptrend may grows legs than take giant leaps”

Two things: commodities may find a floor as demand is alive again and FXP may not live long.

China’s move today is as real as it gets. Black gold data at 1035 may support the demand factor.

Best moves IF commodities are alive again:

1. Short the fuck out of airlines that may tripled recently.

2. Short the fuck out of FXP.

3. LNG may move up faster than oil, as silver to gold.

Maybe i’m too excited, but its just that i don’t see Goldman Sachs being wrong ever; “oil to reach 150ish near end of year”

“my last call for oil to bounce at 120, if broken to settle above 110″ was on the money.

4 Responses to “Expect a bounce in commodities if…; short FXP”

  1. Juice Says:

    I tried to short FXP yesterday. No borrow. So I had to settle for some FXI.

  2. InternationalGroupie Says:

    I am not 100pct sure about the bottom in commodities; what do i know, china may or may not take all the supply in excess. An as money growth is close to 0, i don’t know what would industries do if they need loans and have to settle for high rates.

    It all depends on the hedges, if they say hey we were wrong china is all we need to continue the demand then some bounce in commodities. otherwise, what china growth its only 7%, haven’t you heard that today’s volume was thin in HK/mainland china shares.

  3. InternationalGroupie Says:

    BOOM BOOM BOOM

    Demand is alive!!!

  4. JakeGint Says:

    This recalls the Seuss book I was reading to my two year old the other week: Mr. Brown can Moo, can You?

    There’s a page that goes something like this:

    Boom! Boom! Boom! Mr. Brown is a wonder!

    Boom! Boom! Boom! Mr. Brown makes thunder!

    Mr. Brown makes lighting! Splat! Splat! Splat!

    And it’s very very hard to make a noise like that!

    _____

    Loosely translated, it means you’re half right. Oil to bounce, at least temporarily, but with no help to our Oriental Orimpics Fliends.

    ___

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