As the presumptive nominee to the King of the Peanut Gallery post for the month of September, a large and elaborate coronation ceremony was planned complete with much speechifying (I am an iBC outsider, from the boonies in western Virginia), slogan-promoting (iBC First!), and general revelry. However, with a hurricane bearing down on the Gulf coast, it was decided by certain parties that to hold such a ceremony today would be in bad taste. Thus, it is postponed until the storm passes and it becomes feasible to engage in such a grandiose spectacle. That being said, in a completely un-celebratory and completely downtrodden tone of text, I would like to thank all those in the iBC community who have enjoyed my posts and voted me here. And of course, I must thank The Fly, because, well, He is The Fly.

Gustav had a bit of a rough night. The passage of Cuba, despite lasting only 6 hours, had a significant impact on the storm. As of 2pm, winds had weakened from 150 down to 115 mph, making it a low-end category 3 storm.

Image: Current satellite showing a 115 mph Gustav trying to re-organize. It is a lopsided storm with the majority of its convection on the west side of the system.

While it recently appears to be making a comeback and I would not be surprised to see it regain Cat 4 status for a brief while, I think it has too many factors working against it and am expecting it to be a strong cat 2/weak cat 3 at landfall (Following the 2 category drop-off I talk about yesterday).

First, the storm passed over a warm eddy this morning (without strengthening) and is now passing over a cold eddy, which usually induces weakening. After passing this eddy, it will have one final chance to intensify before reaching the coast.

Image: Heat content of the GOM showing Gustav crossing a small region of lower heat content.

Second, wind shear, already at a modest 15 mph, is expected to increase further to 20-25 mph heading up to landfall.

Third, the waters of the continental shelf are shallow and have a low heat content. As I discussed yesterday, storms have a history of weakening on the shelf, and I believe Gustav will be no different.

Lastly, the storm has increased in forward speed, to 17 mph. This points to a landfall sometime tomorrow morning, earlier than the official forecast currently indicates. The storm will simply have less time to spend over water and intensify.

Personally, these factors lead me to estimate its strength at landfall to be somewhere between 105-115 mph. However, the NHC is calling for a landfall of 135 mph, and since they know more than I do and have more fancy gadgetry, I respect their forecast and advise people in the path to prepare for a Category 4 strike.

Image: Official forecast track showing what I believe to be an overdone Cat 4 at landfall.

Regardless of whether it is a Cat. 2, 3, or 4, this is a very serious storm. Not only will there be significant wind and surge damage, but as the storm is supposed to slow down once it reaches the coast, flooding will also become a threat. Early damage forecasts estimate the storm’s toll to run as high as $27B, roughly the same as Hurricane Andrew, but significantly less than Katrina’s $81B.

That all being said, NO Mayor Nagin’s pronouncement that Gustav will be the “Storm of the Century,” was not only premature, but rather ridiculous as well. Does he not remember Katrina, Rita, The President’s Day Storm, the Midwest Flooding Last spring? Not to mention, a “Storm of the Century” in an 8 year old century is not much to brag about. I’m sure he was only saying it to get people to evacuate, but I felt it was rather foolish and uninformed.

The landfall forecast has come into line and central La, just west of NO near Morgan City, appears right now to be ground zero. NO will be on the right semicircle, the more dangerous side, of the storm, and can expect a significant storm surge of as much as 10-15 feet. It appears right now that the levees should be able to hold such a surge. Fortunately, the areas to the west are less densely populated and hopefully easier to evacuate. Thus damage and loss and life might be kept to a minimum.

The track forecast takes the storm just east of the greatest concentration of oil rigs. 96% of Oil and 82% of NG production has been shut in as a result of the storm.

Image: Anticipated impact to the rigs and refineries. Green Rigs: No impact. Blue Rigs: Evacuated. Yellow Rigs: evacuated, will require an inspected before they are restarted. Red Rigs: Damage anticipated. Note that the track passes east of the greatest concentration of rigs, but nearly directly over the LOOP terminal. Overall, the infrastructure looks to take a less severe hit than at this time yesterday. Image Credit: Goodle Earth and KAC

However, the real threat is the LOOP (Louisiana Offshore Oil Port), which the storm looks to directly pass over. It handles deepwater tankers and pumps 1.2 million barrels of oil a day, and its pipelines connect to 50% of US refining capability. The loss of this facility could result in a backlog of crude oil and a shortage of petroleum products (i.e. distillates, gasoline, heating oil, etc).

What’s Behind Gustav?

Image: Atlantic Satellite showing (from West to East) Gustav, Hanna, 98L, and 97L.

A lot. Hanna now looks to be a threat to the east coast. The models have it making landfall in the Carolina’s Friday, before moving up the coast and threatening the megalopolis heading into the weekend. The storm is weak right now with 50 mph winds, and will likely remain so for another 3 days, before conditions become more favorable. By Thursday, the NHC takes it to an 80 mph hurricane

An area about 500 miles east of Hanna, named Invest 98L, by the NHC, remains disorganized, but still has maybe a 30% chance of developing in the next few days. Another wave, 97L, east of 98L, is looking more organized and seems to be approaching Tropical Depression status. I give it a 60% chance of becoming Ike in the next 3 days. Both of these systems are currently forecast to recurve east of the US, but they have a long distance to travel and things could very well change in the upcoming week.

Note: Beginning tomorrow, I will be writing from KOPG.

Disclaimer: This is a very serious storm. These are just my opinions. Don’t make life and death decisions by what you read here. Listen to your local emergency management officials before deciding whether to evacuate and making preparations.