Can someone please tell me…by recusancy on September 7th, 2008 at 7:56 pm |
(7 votes, average: 3.43 out of 5)
Loading ...why the nationalization of Fannie and Freddie is going to make the financials rally tomorrow. Yes, I understand that some risk will be taken out of the market, but that doesn’t get rid of the fact there are still a shit ton of bad mortgages out there. Does this fix Lehman? Is Bill Gross going to change his tune from Thursday?
So when my SKF position takes a kick to the balls tomorrow morning will it be a rational move? Or is it just more emotion then anything else?
I’m guessing lower real interest rates (especially on the shorter end) resulting in a steeper yield curve resulting in financials making oodles of $$$ on the spread. Just a guess.
September 7th, 2008 at 8:09 pmAlso means mortgage rates will go down and housing stocks should rumble. Just another guess.
Nice sarcasm. Wouldn’t there be more regulation though. The point of this was to help the consumer. Won’t there be regulations on the current (new) spreads? Sort of like a windfall profits tax.
Yes, I understand these are all probably dumb questions.
September 7th, 2008 at 8:15 pmit is what it is
September 7th, 2008 at 8:31 pmI think the futures look pretty interesting:
September 7th, 2008 at 8:34 pmhttp://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html
How many times has the PPT tried to get the market going this year alone? Its always worked short term but have a look at where we are now. This time will be no different. They may win the battle but they will lose the war. They may win the day or the week but the laws of physics will take over sooner than later. I have a feeling this rally will be the shortest in time duration, of all attempted market manipulations this year.
September 7th, 2008 at 8:40 pmI agree w/ you Juice. The last rally from March to May converted people, then July sucked em out, and added a lot of fuel to the fire in terms of shorting. This most recent rally didnt last long enough on the upside or downside to suck in a lot of investor money, long or short So, people are counting on the reaction Monday and the days following as being indicative of big money putting money to work? Wrong. It’ll be a short squeeze, but not like the other gvt. intervention bottom short squeezes.
This rally is a gift from God. I can’t thank him enough for the money I’m about to make off of this.
One, I have tons of cash to deploy short. Two, HFs across the land are jumping for joy at the prospect of selling into strength. Three, retailers and pros alike on the wrong side get squeezed, adding gas to the fire, but not nearly as much as in July. Four, this is fundamentally a bad thing, because all it did was prevent the all out collapse of the Financial System. Five, we will be overbought if we even open at 1265 tomorrow. Six, it bailed out the banks, not the consumer.
September 7th, 2008 at 8:47 pmnow the government will buy all the mortgages off the commercial banks books and renegotiate loans with homes in foreclosure process. 50 year mortgages and they’ll lower the payments so people stay put in their home, mean while they will send them a tax bill that goes up year after year to make up for the interest the government is paying to float the fuckers out of debt. Americans are lazy… people bought a house thinking they’d sell it in 2 years and take the money and rent until they had enough money to buy a house… so what do most americans do? quit, fuck it bro, why should i work to pay for a mortgage? fuck that i quit…. take the home mr banker… i got screwed, i was supposed to be rich… whaaah
September 7th, 2008 at 9:03 pmLook to get short this week where it makes sense with October in mind.
September 8th, 2008 at 12:37 amthinking mid-week … maybe during lunch hour
September 8th, 2008 at 2:55 amThis is the most widely anticipated and telegraphed rally in recent memory. All last week people were thinking about how the rally would come when the bailout happens. As soon as the WSJ report came out Friday everyone has been talking about the upcoming rally. This rally may not last until lunch on Monday or it could go to Thursday, but I suspect that too many people see this thing coming just like us and are going to start selling/shorting into it real quick like. IMHO
September 8th, 2008 at 3:26 amI think there is a simple explanation as to why there is always a rally after these types of announcements. whether it is a valid reason to rally or not, is not relevant here, unless you plan to get really short into it.
If you take the following statement as being true.
“Markets hate uncertainty”
Then the removal of the uncertainty over FNM/FRE stabilizes the market and the markets can then trade on certainty, (i.e 6.1% unemployment, strong dollar, hope for change, etc …)
September 8th, 2008 at 5:59 amI just heard the guy on Bloomberg say “why this may be the end of the mortgage crisis.” Good God, how many times have we heard that over the past few months? This tumor hasn’t yet been officially diagnosed as the systemic cancer it really is, much less cured.
September 8th, 2008 at 8:05 amSound like it should bring back a lot of strength to commodities, gold, oil — even though very few people are talking about it.
The Fed is finally “printing money”. There’s been nothing but rampant deflation for weeks as the housing / credit markets have tumbled. This BLAST of CREDIT should indeed create a huge rally but it can’t reinflate the process.
It’ll be tricky because everyone wants to fade the rally so it’ll probably run harder than people think. Who’s a buyer on a big gap up in this market?
September 8th, 2008 at 8:47 amLet’s make this an orderly process. Everyone who owns SKF needs to form a single file line. When you get to the front of the line, please place your gonads on the block and prepare to have them chopped off.
Jake, please take your place at the front of the line.
September 8th, 2008 at 9:08 amTo those who want to wait till mid-week to short financials:
Adjust you time frame to THIS MORNING BEFORE NOON or get left holding the bag.
September 8th, 2008 at 9:30 amSemis look like crap thus far.
September 8th, 2008 at 9:40 amJoke call of the day (or year)- C downgrades FNM,FRE to Sell from Buy.
Done for the day (at least the AM). Shorted SMH 27.06 and covered 26.45. Like shooting moose with Sarah Palin.
September 8th, 2008 at 9:58 amI had several day orders in this morning at Fidelity to buy SKF at 97.47 or better. I placed the orders at 9:22 AM
It opened at 97.40, went down to 96.40, then rallied. OF COURSE I didn’t get my fill.
Something about “the home exchange is the American, and we only place orders on the home exchange where it opened above 101″.
Yeah. RIIIGGGHHHTT. If I had tried to cancel
my orders at say 9: 33, and the stock was trading at say 89 at 10AM, I would have gotten the motherfucker.
Just another problem with trading stocks.
If you are WRONG on a pre-market order and it
is a loser you get filled - miraculously.
If you guess RIGHT they give you excuse number xxx why you didn’t fill.
September 8th, 2008 at 10:06 amI got filled at 97.05 premarket.
Maybe you just suck.
September 8th, 2008 at 11:49 am