Sunday, March 14th, 2010

Chill Out

10

Posted by hattery at 12:30 am
1 Star2 Stars3 Stars4 Stars5 Stars (11 votes, average: 4.55 out of 5)
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100+ year Chart of the Dow

9/24/1900 the dow? 53 points

6/17/1901 less than a year later? 78.3 points,  nearly 50% more

11/07/1903 the Dow was about 42 points back down even lower

Huge moves up and then back down percentage wise, in a short period of time.

5/8/1904 Dow 47.40

1/19/1906 Dow 103 over 100% as much in less than 2 years

11/22/1907 back down to 53.10 nearly cut in half

10/2/1909 100.5 nearly a double

We could continue over several more situations, but I’ll only do one more

8/20/1921 65.09

8/30/1929 383.9 8 years the market has nearly quintupled in value.  Buying on margin was popular, and people were certainly living in excess.

7/08/1932 40.60 Now they really bite the bullet 90% drop in 3 years 

It’s funny how we all think the world is ending when we have a 20% move in a year… Fear is at an all time high, the word “depression” is mentioned every chance the media gets, and the Dow is still above 10,000. 

The same kind of drop as we saw from 1929 until 1931 now adays would put dow to about 1500 by the end of 2010. If the Dow even just goes to 7000 People will think the world’s over.

If you plan to invest, you have to put everything in perspective.

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Comments

10 Responses to “Chill Out”
  1. The Fly says:

    Excellent post.

  2. GW says:

    If the DOW goes to 7k I would think that this was the greatest buying opportunity. If it went to 1500 then I would think that I should triple down since 0 is not to far away and nothing really matters at 0.
    0 is when the world comes to an end.
    Also back in the day only a small percentage of society even had stocks. Today more than half our society owns a steak in the market place.

  3. Anonymous says:

    You can’t really look at financial markets prior to the Nixon gold delink to help figure the present day. Gold link, gold standard etc. had a different influence on the market.

  4. mrkcbill says:

    GW..I’m eating my steak tonight. 2.5″ medium well on fire cooked at 1,000 degrees!

  5. Pudfucker says:

    Investors are shitting BRICs:

    Brazil down 30% YTD
    Russia down 53% YTD
    India down 38% YTD
    China down 56% YTD

  6. mdawsz says:

    Looks like we have pretty good support around 1000 on the Dow.

  7. bait bucket says:

    Yep, amazing that the same thirty companies have lasted so long. ::rolls eyes::

  8. hattery says:

    bait bucket, I’m confused… Did I say anything in my post about 30 companies lasting long, or even imply I was talking about their longevity? you’re completely missing my point.
    When you get into investing, you have to respect the fact that the market can dive very hard. But the world isn’t ending, it’s not armageddon out there just yet. Those who think it is could be in for a rude awakening if/when the “real” financial armageddon comes. All you ever hear about is “great depression part 2″ If people think things are bad now, they ain’t seen nothing yet.
    If it truely is going to be great depression part 2, then it’s got a LONG, LONG ways to go, and plan your bets accordingly
    But even if you think the market will hit bottom “sometime soon” or that “the worst is over”, you need to respect the fact that it would not be unusual to suffer a 50% drop from it’s high to around 7000, or even worse.

  9. alphadawgg says:

    hattery-nice post.

    I must say, however, that there is more at risk now than 80 or 100 years ago. We are part of a global marketplace with many more stakeholders that stand to lose.

    As the crisis continues to spread, look for more foreign investors to continue to reallocate from U.S. stocks to U.S. bonds.

  10. largebill says:

    People foolishly thought things go up in a straight line forever. The destination is likely up from here, but we could go lower on the way to that destination.

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