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double-back-to-the-sma20-scan

Double Back to the SMA(20) Scan

by Prospectus on October 12th, 2008 at 2:58 am

Forget all my bullshit below. Once again, FINVIZ is awesome and I have been rendered obsolete.

Here’s a link to screen results (120) for optionable stocks above $1 that are 50% or more below their 20 SMA:

Screen Results 1

Add in some filters for profitability and debt/equity ratios, and you get these screen results (26):

Screen Results 2

Finally, I added a 5% of float sold short filter, and sorted by Short Ratio (days to cover at average vol) and got these results (14):

Screen Results 3

There’s gotta be some good buys in there somewhere.

____________________________________________________________________________________

After the comments from CAP and Woodshedder about finding stocks that would double on a move back to their 20 period moving average, I went to Stockfetcher.com’s scanner and threw together this scan. It looks for long candidates that, should they return to their 20 day EMA, would at least double from the current price:

stock is optionable /*Only optionable stocks*/
close above 1 /*Filter out stocks below $1*/
set{double,close*2}
draw ema(20)
double is less than ema(20) /*EMA(20) is at least twice the close*/
add column double
add column ema(20)
set{den,close/100}
set{return,ema(20)/den}
sort return descending /*Sort by % return (could be more than double)*/
add column return

Here’s the results:

And the tickers in ibc format:

Cypress Semiconductor Corporation (CY: 2.97 -0.67%)
Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI: 1.06 -4.50%)
Reliant Energy, Inc. (RRI: 4.54 -3.20%)
General Growth Properties, Inc (GGP: 0.4399 +9.98%)
iStar Financial Inc. (SFI: 1.14 +17.53%)
Protective Life Corp. (PL: 6.55 -3.82%)
XL Capital Ltd. (XL: 4.56 -10.76%)
Aracruz Celulose SA (ADR) (ARA: 8.29 -3.04%)
PharmaNet Development Group Inc. (PDGI: 2.05 0.00%)
(MECA: 1.35 -8.78%)
American International Group, Inc. (AIG: 1.68 +7.69%)
Morgan Stanley (MS: 10.688 +4.27%)
Genworth Financial, Inc. (GNW: 1.12 +9.80%)
Advanced Medical Optics, Inc. (EYE: 5.55 +4.32%)
Mechel OAO (ADR) (MTL: 3.96 -7.48%)
Fortress Investment Group LLC (FIG: 1.9552 -13.87%)
AK Steel Holding Corporation (AKS: 6.31 -3.07%)
Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings, Inc. (CCO: 4.68 -5.26%)
ATP Oil & Gas Corporation ATP Oil & Gas Corporation ATP Oil & Gas Corporation ATP Oil & Gas Corporation ATP Oil & Gas Corporation ATP Oil & Gas Corporation ATP Oil & Gas Corporation ATP Oil & Gas Corporation (ATPG: 4.40 -13.39%)
InterOil Corporation (USA) (IOC: 9.32 -2.92%)
Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. (EGLE: 4.46 -30.85%)
Hercules Offshore, Inc. (HERO: 3.68 -17.12%)
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (USA) (NAK: 2.20 -3.51%)
FelCor Lodging Trust Incorporated (FCH: 0.87 -10.31%)
Hartford Financial Services (HIG: 6.37 -7.41%)
Conseco, Inc. (CNO: 2.48 +2.48%)
Cemex SAB de CV (ADR) (CX: 4.51 -1.53%)
Century Aluminum Company (CENX: 5.5601 -9.15%)
Hypercom Corporation (HYC: 0.75 -3.85%)
DryShips Inc. (DRYS: 4.37 -18.16%)
Sonic Automotive, Inc. (SAH: 2.39 -5.91%)

First glance it looks like lots of financials, commodities and shippers.The highest return would come from Cypress Semiconductor Corporation (CY: 2.97 -0.67%) at 271%. However, some of these candidates are toast and will go away for good, or will never see the current EMA(20) ever again. How to filter those out? Is it even possible without hindsight? Feel free to comment.

9 Responses to “Double Back to the SMA(20) Scan”

  1. Woodshedder Says:

    Nice work! I’ll take a look at some of the specific stocks after coffee…

  2. cuervoslaugh Says:

    5 * Prospectus. Good to see you back.
    Only one thing:
    This is all assuming there is a rally coming.

    In my book that’s a pretty big assumption.

    The reality is that the bigger the reaction from the central banks - the worse the market is going to gyrate.

    Here are some numbers (Aug12-Oct 12 Dow Jones Highs-Lows) that are a little scary:
    5Day 3SD: 579.43
    10Day 3SD: 749.08
    30Day 3SD: 683.03

    5Day 5SD: 965.72
    10Day 5SD: 1248.46
    30Day 5SD: 1138.39

    5Day 10SD: 1931.45
    10Day 10SD: 2496.92
    30Day 10SD: 2276.78

    Let’s call the 5SD and 10SD “Black Swan” events and go with the 3SD which is severe enough.

    5 Day range is 7871.76 at the low and 9030.62 at the top.
    10 Day range is 7702.11 at the low and 9200.27 at the top.
    30 Day Range is 7768.16 at the low and 9134.22 at the top.

    It’s a spitball estimation but I think it’s too conservative. I am eyeballing the 5SD pretty closely

  3. Yogi & Boo Boo Says:

    Thanks. CY looks to be screwy due to the spinoff of sunpower at the end of September.

  4. Cajun Says:

    Great stuff Pro! Keep the posts coming.

  5. CAP Says:

    Excellent. This is an awesome buy list right here. If someone were to take an equal amount of money and spread it out amongst these name, a 50%+ return is possible by Dec 31st provided the world does not end.

  6. Anton Cigur Says:

    Outstanding. Thanks.

  7. bhh Says:

    great job on this.

  8. Stock Picks and Discussion at iBankCoin.com » Blog Archive » Point Out The Bounce Says:

    [...] forget to check out Prospectus over in the PG, he has some good bounce plays as [...]

  9. Stock Discussion, Trading Ideas, Stock Talk at iBankCoin.com » Blog Archive » 1 Day Results for the Double Back 20 SMA Scan Says:

    [...] you had run the Double Back to SMA(20) scan 5 minutes before Friday’s close and IF you had the balls to buy all 26 of the candidates [...]

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