Hugh Hendry of Eclecticaby Phil_from_Brazil on October 19th, 2008 at 9:31 pm |
(10 votes, average: 4.7 out of 5)
Loading ...Folks,
I just came across an absolutely straight-shooting fund manager on the Bloomberg site today: Hugh Hendry, Manager of Eclectica. He was the best performing European asset manager in the 2000-2002 bear market. He uses long-term technicals and fundamentals to guide his investment decisions.
Eclectica was concentrated in commodities (more specifically, gold) in 2003 and foresaw the commodity boom. Now, he calls for a period of at least 3 years of deflation followed by inflation and a return to the commodities trade thereafter. Right now, however, he believes we’re in a Depression and that all equities will get dragged down. The guy pulls no punches and seems to be pretty much on the ball.
Here are some excerpts:
Bloomberg Oct 17 Interview
CNBC Aug 1 Interview
-Phil_from_Brazil
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Hugh is a great example of a brilliant fund manager not paying attention to his own advice. He has nailed this crisis from day one, yet finds himself long egregious amounts of POT.
Another casualty of hubris.
October 19th, 2008 at 9:37 pmFly,
You’re right. I was wondering the same thing. The guy is spot-on, yet owns a bunch of bullshit ag plays while calling out the End of Days.
Oh well - whaddya gonna do? Jim Rogers is similar. He laughs at equities and talks about the current deflationary cycle, then talks about how he’s buying soybeans “for the next cycle”.
Still, you’ve got to give this Hugh guy props for going public with the deflation-first-then-inflation playbook. Most of the cookie-cutter fund managers on TV don’t lay out the apocalyptic scenarios they probably hold to be true in the privacy of their homes.
Rather, they’re factory-programmed, like Guy Adami, to ignore common sense and advocate that viewers go purchase Oracle “because it’s cheap on a valuation basis”.
-Phil
October 19th, 2008 at 10:03 pmHugh is great, regardless of his performance.
October 19th, 2008 at 10:53 pmI watch this guy all the time on CNBC Europe, and correct he was spot on with his thesis, but like many of them do not follow their advice.
He was recommending Uralkali and K+S at least 50% higher than they trade today. He sounded so convincing I almost pulled the trigger.
David Bloom is another guy you want to listen to, partly for amusement factor, partly for his advice.
October 20th, 2008 at 6:31 am“Iceland was just a rock in the middle of the Atlantic and had no value.”
Those Rock People must love this guy. His picture must be on the dart boards in the pubs there.
October 20th, 2008 at 6:56 amThere are no “pubs” in Iceland, per se. The people there get their “rock on” in geothermally heated strobe light discos that play only a fusion of Bjork and electronica whilst serving Finlandia shooters in dime-thin foot-long frosted snifter glasses.
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October 20th, 2008 at 3:26 pmHugh has been on CNBC Europe for a long time now.
He was a regular morning guest at least in the 2003/4 era.
Agree with your description of him.
October 20th, 2008 at 4:26 pmguys, don’t believe the hype. sure i recommend a lot of things on tv but remember when those share prices fall, i sell, regardless of intelectual conviction. thats why i am down a ton less than the other morons in my mutual fund and thats why my hedge fund is up 40% in october and 20% for the year. so go pick on someone more worthy of your legitimate rage Mr Fly
October 21st, 2008 at 6:59 am