The Case Shiller housing index was released today.  It was down over last month but there were a few signs of hope for the optimistic.  Here is my chart with my 18 month ARIMA forecast for housing prices (click for a bigger/better view):

So my forecast model has home prices as measured by the 10-city Case Shiller being about flat for the next few months but that is due to the strong seasonal effect this time of year.  My forecast has a year from now being down about 11% from here.  Still too early to tell if the bottom in housing is here although there are some signs that at least the rate of decrease is slowing. 

The MacroMarkets Case-Shiller ETF’s UMM and DMM begin trading today.  These trade 3x the cumulative change in the Case Shiller Index up (UMM) and inverse (DMM).  You can see some of my blog posts on these for more info but some key points to keep in mind:

• These are tied to the cumulative change in the case shiller housing index.  Not a daily change so they should not be subject to the value erosion problems some of the leveraged ETF’s have.
• The settlement date is Nov 2014 so technically what matters is the price of the housing index then.  However based on assumed value UMM and DMM should track the changes in the case shiller between now and then.
• These provide a very unique opportunity to invest directly in the U.S. housing market in a way not possible before this.
• These could be used to hedge your personal housing risk although I doubt  many will do so.

I plan to watch these closely as I have alot of interest in these especially because I feel good about my case shiller forecasting model.  But I want to let them trade for  a bit to see how they get valued in the market. 

I will surely do some followup posts in the future.