Thursday, March 11th, 2010

Options Magic 8-Ball Says We May Go Higher Tomorrow

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Posted by DPeezy at 4:25 am
1 Star2 Stars3 Stars4 Stars5 Stars (11 votes, average: 3.82 out of 5)
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Or we may not (© j0sh1ngU)!
Mind you, I’m no Lenny Dykstra, so I’m not always correct.  But I’m seeing a couple things that give me some confidence of higher prices tomorrow.

1.  The index put/call ratio:
The $CPCI spiked high today…just barely high enough (@1.51) to generate a contrarian long entry:

cpci

Now, in case you’ve been following my posts, you might recall that this exact same signal was not taken back in early June…this ambuigity stems from the fact that I have not calculated the standard deviation of the $CPCI data over the past year, so I cannot exactly determine what the thresholds would be for spike high/low levels.  The June signal was ignored…and to good effect as it would’ve been a losing trade.

The main difference between now and then are my other indicators (SPY stoch’s), which showed overbought in June, but are oversold currently.  The whole idea of the system is to be contrarian, so that’s why I’m leaning towards jumping on this signal and buying tomorrow’s open.  Putting the system’s 6-trade winning streak on the line, however, I will be buying this with Monopoly money…if you, on the other hand, buy this with your real money, Mr. Monopoly will come and personally beat the shit out of you.

2.  Common patterns & signals in most of my charts:
I’m no TCA, or Woodshedder, or RC, so you must also take this with some salty grains…but I’m seeing a common pattern in quite a few of my ‘basket of stocks’.  Here’s a good example, FLR:

flr

Essentially, multiple down days have driven the stock into oversold territory (bright green slow stoch’s line) but then along comes an RSI(3) breakout as well as an LRR(5) flip to +1 (indication of a positive turn in the price direction, taking day highs/lows into account).  The LRR(5) with the SS’s are my primary indicators, the RSI(3) breakout is just a bonus – it is mainly used to know when I need to start getting defensive on profits in a position).

Since I aim to bank just a percentage of the trend (rather than worry about catching the exact bottom/top), I require confirmation of this via new highs, via a break of the last 2-3 days’ highs.  In the case of FLR, my buy point is “at and above” $49 (at which point a limit order for calls gets submitted).

A selection of some other names where I’m seeing this:  GOOG, ILMN, JRCC, MON, MOS, NOV, SPY, WFR, XLF.  Please note, the moves may only be 1-2 days long and they _all_ require price confirmation, so it’s not like I’m buying these with both hands.

Seeing as how I’m getting SPY long entries in both “systems”, I’m leaning towards a positive Friday.

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Comments

6 Responses to “Options Magic 8-Ball Says We May Go Higher Tomorrow”
  1. MX2101 says:

    I appreciate your posts, thanks for doing them.

  2. DPeezy says:

    Word. Thanks for reading.

  3. DPeezy says:

    Obviously, we didn’t see anywhere near the bullishness required to make this a good day for the Magic 8-Ball. Despite that, the SPY Aug’09 86. calls that were bought at today’s open were essentially flat at the end of the day, while the bullish setup in FLR failed to confirm, so I avoided wasting any money on that.

    My PNRA calls from yesterday did good, while I managed to close out my bearish MON spread for a decent profit (bought before earnings). The only July position to worry about next weekend is my KG straddle, which has failed to do anything dramatic in the last few weeks. Biotech lottery my ass; I’m ready to take the loss on this.

    Enjoy the weekend, fellow iBCers. Off to drink copious amounts of finely crafted malt beverages.

  4. DPeezy says:

    Also, boobies! Fuck you, Orlando.

  5. Anton Cigur says:

    I wish you’d told me you weren’t Lenny Dykstra before I gave you
    my credit card numbers to get your G5 out of Cleveland.

    Doh.

  6. DPeezy says:

    Live and learn, bro, live and learn.
    Don’t worry though, you know I’m good for it.
    But first, I need a sandwich. Can I have 10 bucks?

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