Last fall I remember furiously writing a few posts about the growing negativity over the markets and some of the real hyperbole that was being discussed  (mostly over at Karl’s Den of Doom and Despair) and I opined for the need of an innovative approach to the (then) current market situation.

Nearly 9 months later, nothing has really changed. Sure, the market has risen from it’s March 09 lows but, the attitude amongst the blogoscoti seems to be unrepentedly bearish.

Over and over again there are comments and posts on how “the market’s rally has over extended itself” or “September is the Halloween for the markets” are continuing to fly around these here “intertubes” like flies on the Chinese takeout meal left on the desk of the self same bloggers.

Like left out food, the same mental patterns continue to permeate, having gained a noxious aroma in the past 9 months not that unlike leaving some Moo Shu over in a corner and wilfully ignoring it for the better part of a year – we read the same ratcheted up tirades against the “media”, against “the government”, or against “the foreign investors”.

The solutions, likewise are the same for these Alex Jonesian meme huggers inevitably.

As always, “the dollar is going to crash so you should invest in commodities – Gold and Silver are the best!”.

From “walstreetpro2″, with his near photographic recall of GDP numbers and unemployment rates recited in between acts of ultraviolence against “foreign goods made by dirty furrigners takin’ Americun jobsuh” to Glen Beck, one can find the whole gambit of crytpo-isms ranging from racism to fascism, whipping up the dittoheads into fevered chants against everything around them so they can be free.

Reality

Let’s face a few things why don’t we – you and me – blogger to reader:

1. Like it or not – the average 401k has increased in the last six months due to the rally
2. Countries around the world are beginning to see either a decline in the toboggan ride to hell speed of a decline, or actually have technically come out of a recession
3. Companies are actually beginning to at least have interviews, and a few here and there are hiring.

The Blogosphere’s Reaction?

I’ve said it a bunch of times in various spots and in personal conversations: it is the conceit of the conspiracy theorist to show you two unconnected facts and force you to agree with them on the basis of the disconnect between their narrative and reality.

And no where that I have experienced is this disconnect from reality more apparent than in the mad scribblings of the terrified and wannabe fear-mongers amongst the financial set.

A case in point, if you will: “An Ill Wind Blows from Japan” which is Mr. Dennninger’s latest psuedo apocalyptic rant against “the bezzle” and in one memorable instance he manages to sum up, for me, the essence of the miscue the paranoid financial blogosphere sometimes typifies:

More ominously a link-up between the Yen and Yuan, unthinkable with the former government, now looks possible.  Create a basket-of-currency settlement system over in Asia with the Yen and Yuan as the core elements and the US immediately loses control of the game we’ve been trying to run with the banksters and fraud-laced credit games in the United States.

I’m literally grinning as I type this because I’m still chuckling at both the error and my initial gut busting laughter it provoked when I read it Sunday night.

Look here – ask anyone who knows any history about Japan and China. I mean someone who really knows and understands the cultures represented therein, and the long, ugly, bitter history between the two and then read the above paragraph to them.

You’ll get a guaranteed reaction ranging from puzzlement to outright ridicule, especially if it’s from someone representing those two cultures for one reason and one reason alone: only in North America is it possible for such a 180 degree turn between hated enemies to business partners.

The rest of the world doesn’t look or operate like that – and it’s Mr D. playing out his own twisted fantasies on his readership and making an even larger buffoon of himself to the rest of the “intertubes” in the process. The rest of the world in contrast has a more permanent memory.

Over at the Automatic Earth

We see more prosaic paranoia and, dubious interpretations of reality:
We know what caused this crisis. The West kept short-term interest rates too low for a quarter century, luring society into debt: and the East held down long-term rates by flooding bond markets as a side-effect of their mercantilist strategy (ie suppressing currencies to gain export share). The outcome was over-investment, excess capacity, and too much debt among those supposed to buy the goods.

Actually, it was a mite bit more complicated than that but, the above paragraph is the root of a particular meme that, this whole mess is a byproduct of those “nasty foreigners making their products too cheap”. It’s coupled with the other meme that the Fed has conspired to help cause this downfall by “keeping interest rates too low” which provides fuel for the working-scared or the unemployed-desperate to turn their mindless, attention deficit panic into soft malleable rage.

The current financial crisis has plenty of roots but, the reality of the situation when looking at the ultra long term view is that there are cycles, micro, small, medium, long, and large and it’s a fairly reasonable perspective that regardless of whatever economic shenaningans had a hand in this mess, there was a correction coming regardless.

The Zombified Future

It’s interesting to note the last few years rise in “zombie” stories – perhaps as a prosaic projection of the numbing chorus of voices’ effect, each arguing with fevered intent on both sides of every issue – that there is a connect to a more realistic event.

While cloaked in the clothing of the “America is losing it’s innovation” meme, there is a grain of truth to this rant however:

Make no mistake: This is a huge blow for the United States, and particularly Silicon Valley. It’s killing diversity in graduate schools at a time future business leaders most need to understand other countries, especially Asian ones. Xenophobic, anonymous cowards may leave as much bile in the comments as they want: The reality is one out of every four tech companies is started by an immigrant. In the tech industry, immigrants have created more high paying jobs than they’ve “stolen.”

….

You know that American dream and American spirit of innovation we always talk about? Turns out, the bulk of it was built by people who came to America from somewhere else, not people born American. We have no birthright or natural lock on these things. Money and talent are fungible assets that flowed to the U.S.—and specifically the Valley—because that is where they were supported and rewarded.

And it’s this last point that I’ll spend a few moments on because it’s a case that I made back last fall in discussing that the centres of finance are moving away from New York to places like Hong Kong, and perhaps even back to Europe (if the rise out of the recession in some EU member states is any indication) and where these money centres are – there will go the talent.

A perfect example is the “debate on healthcare” and the spurious meme that without the US’ “innovative spirit” the rest of us would suffer. A worth counter to that, is the simple fact that many US educated medical doctors have returned to their home countries and are fostering a unique kind of tourism: medical tourism from the US to places like India for treatment:

and for every US trained doctor in another country – there’s at least one or two computer scientists and a MBA nearby.

But, that’s not paranoia – it’s conjecture based on evidence

I speak that as someone who has been a statistic in this down turn, who for nearly six months turned over every rock in an unfamilar landscape looking for work when one opportunity gave way to a longer gap than expected to the next one.

If anyone, I would have every reason to be pessimistic, cynical, morose or even disgusted with the mess that was created. And in the hard times, it was a struggle against those feelings. But just as hope is not a tradable strategy – neither is fear, neither is cynicism, or disgust and certainly not hatred. I’m into looking at the numerical view of things when it’s applicable and I try to find the reality and with regards to my perspective find ways to locate where I’m wrong, hoping to find reality.

Philosophically, I’m a Post-Humanist – meaning that I certainly believe that there will be a singular point at which the other side, culturally/technologically/politically is unfathomable by those of us on this side. This means that my points of view are not engendered by much other than what is the best perspective with the possibility that humans currently living, will continue living for another century.

It renders much of the current political divisions moot in that light.

In Summation

If I’m wrong – so be it. We have another crash and another rousing cry from the bears and fear-mongers who have bought their commodities at “reasonable prices” and are willing to sell them to you at “emergency pricing” down the road – with just a smidgin of a “Mad Max” outcome possible.

I will do what I did when I experienced one of the more traumatic events of the last ten years in my life, which was to take stock of my situation, roll up my sleeves and get to work on improving it while being entertained, informed, and uplifted by the jibber-jabber(tm) of Senor Tropicana.

I wasn’t terrified before it happened and now that I’ve gone through it – I won’t be terrified again.

Now that you’ve been through one of the most horrific twelve months, market-wise, in the last generation – isn’t it about time that we all just did the same and got down to work?

Because Fear is not a market strategem. Period.

Theme Song

Posted by cuervoslaugh on Tuesday, September 1, 2009 at 9:16 pm 
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