(13 votes, average: 3.92 out of 5)
Loading ...I’ve been wrestling with my damn internet the whole night, so maybe I should just short the fuck out of Comcast, via both CMCSA & CMCSK. Â Or perhaps it’s my Netgear modem, in which case I wish death to NTGR. Â Or just perhaps it’s the damn laptop, in which case, fuck you AAPL. Â *Please don’t smite me Steve Jobs!*
Actually, AAPL is my list of potential put buys for tomorrow! Â So the overall idea is that stocks that showed weakness today and over the last few days would be prime candidates to buy puts on in any sort of a pullback. Â And we will have a pullback one of these days, right? Â Yes, I know GOOG reported well…but so did INTC and look where they are now on the 2nd day. Â We’re talking short term, ovah heah.
My list of potential puts for tomorrow includes: Â AAPL (@188.5), COF (@36.69), ESRX (@81.), GLD (@102.25), GS (@187.), LRCX (@36.5). Â These should provide some good insurance/hedges for my overly bullish portfolio, which saw only the addition of NUE today (no sales):
And just in case those don’t work out, I do have a couple call candidates as well: Â ACM (@26.26) & VZ (@29.29)…aka, slim pickings.
OPTIONS UPDATE:
- $CPCI rose a tiny bit and is back within 1 std.dev. of the mean so no new entry for tomorrow. Â The SPY Nov’09 109. puts acquired this morning will be sold at tomorrow’s close, for better or worse…
- Some action in the $VIX, dropping 5% on the day, well below the previously identified “support” of 23, indicative of increasing investor confidence – continued good news for the bulls.
- Continuing my theme from above, here are a few names with significant spec. puts action on this 9th day of the latest miracle-meltup:
- IDCC seeing higher than normal overall activity, with puts outweighing calls about 2:1. Â Stock is butting up against resistance provided by the big gap down in August.
- Similar action in AMED. Â OTM puts all the way out to Jan’10 in play…
- Big block put trades in SPLS (potential hedges)? Â 5k & 10k trading in Nov’09 23. and Dec’09 20.’s, respectively.
- Similar action (10k) in JNPR Nov’09 25. puts. Â They report 1 week from now.
- Very strong Nov’09 put volumes in FXI, easily out-trading the calls about 7:1.  Again, this may be hedging rather than direct bearish bets on China.
- And similar to that, IWM Nov’09 puts well out-trading the calls on the day.
REMEMBER…Friday is OPTIONS EXPIRATION! Â Be prepared for crazy moves and/or “stuck” prices.
I dont know what stocks make up the $CPCI index but I see it is at a relative low level starting to turn up which i agree is time to look at put buying when the low level starts to turn up as the stock is topping out.
Same I use to look for in individual stocks when the technical chart pattern of the stock to start rolling over is what leads the put/call ratio to then move inversely in tandem with that move validating trend change.
The low level put/call charts i scan have been in overbought territory for quite some time. To be expected with this bull move. Recently the indicator gave a false move to turn up and then back down again. Anway it’s trying to turn. Exhaution will give in soon is why I like options your aim doesnt have to be so precise.
I feel your internet pain. I had minor problems 2 weeks ago. I had to replace the AP. Biggest PIA was finding one I wanted in stock somewhere. Finally looked in STAPLES of all places. They out geeked Best Buy.
Ditto, internet struggles cost me about two percent in profits a few weeks back. Nothing more annoying. I take it from your presence that you sorted out the issue, though?
Looks like you may be profitable on Nov 108 or 109 puts now.
My internet struggles are continuing…although I’m starting to narrow the culprit down to my router. Die NTGR, die!!
It’s one of those “intermittent” things. It works for a few minutes, then it seemingly loses all DNS information and just sits there trying to resolve hosts. Then it eventually times out and after retrying a few times (or restarting the system) it tends to work again for a few minutes.
Beyond frustrating. Maybe I should just hack my iPhone and tether up instead.
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Yeah, the 109. puts have climbed into positive territory, up about 2-3% right now. The rest of the portfolio is sucking wind obviously and most longs have stopped out at the “protective” stop.
GS, AAPL, ESRX, LRCX puts have filled and are all good to go right now.
I wouldn’t be surprised, however, to see us recover in the afternoon.
@AndoZork:
the $CPCI is made up of all index/ETF/HOLDR options, with SPX, SPY, QQQQ usually making up the majority of it.
Holy shit! Only took 6 hours, but I finally seem to have sorted my DNS/internet issues. Good god. (”seem” is very much the operative word here as well…we’ll see how it holds up over the coming hours/days…)
I respect and believe your CPCI indicator. I decided to go the other way and bought Nov 109 calls late Thursday afternoon. Currently they are down nearly 20 percent.
Yeah, the ‘indicator’ is definitely not as foolproof as it was earlier this year…but I’m willing to ride out this rough(er) stretch in expectation of an upcoming/longer winning streak…