Figure 1: Hurricane Ida making landfall on the Nicaraguan Coastline early this morning

I blogged this summer as Dr. ‘Cane and thought I’d post one more time here in the the PG as the tropics are trying to give one last hurrah before winter slams down his icy fist.

As we head into November, a hurricane is not something you would generally expect to see, especially given the utterly unremarkable hurricane season of 2009. However, that is just what we have. Hurricane Ida spun up very quickly over the past 24 hours in the extreme southeastern Caribbean Sea, going from a tropical depression at this time yesterday to making landfall on the eastern Nicaraguan coastline this morning as a 75 mph hurricane. It ranks as the sixth most rapidly intensifying cyclone on record, strengthening to a hurricane in exactly 24 hours. In what has to date been a very quiet hurricane season, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, Ida has the potential to make the rig operators of the Gulf breath a bit heavier for the next week or so. Ida’s forecast track is shown below.

Figure 2: Projected path for Hurricane Ida

Ida made landfall this morning in Nicaragua and will likely remain just onshore for the next 48 hours. This will result in rapid weakening with the storm likely being downgraded to a tropical depression at some point. Having been inland for only about 4 hours, Ida is already looking rather ragged. Should the storm make it far enough inland to interact with the mountainous spine of Central America, it is even possible that the system may dissipate all-together. Ida is a very compact system, which makes it more vulnerable to land interaction. Thus, I give the storm a 40% of dissipating over land, which is a little bit higher than the model consensus. However, should the storm continue its present movement due almost north, it should emerge into the western Caribbean Saturday morning as a week tropical depression. Even though it is mid-November, the ocean temperatures of this region are very warm and upper level winds are forecast to be unusually favorable which should give Ida an opportunity to intensify. The map below shows the oceanic heat content available to the storm on its projected path. Generally, values above 50 kJ/cm^-2 permit strengthening while values about 80-100 kJ/cm^2 permit rapid strengthening, assuming favorable upper-level conditions.

Figure 3: Heat content ahead of Ida. Note the particularly warm western Caribbean.

There are two potential tracks for Ida once it exits the Caribbean (assuming it survives its trek over Central America). Should the storm continue due northward into the central Gulf and threaten the oil and gas infrastructure in that region (see Figure 1), water temperatures quickly cool off and hostile upper level winds increase. This would result in significant weakening and Ida would not make landfall as more than a minimal to modest tropical storm. On the other hand, Should Ida make a turn to the east once it reaches the Gulf, as some models are now suggesting, Ida could strike further south in Florida as a much stronger system, perhaps as Category 1 or 2 hurricane. Such a track would be similar to Hurricane Wilma in October of 2005.

Ida’s path will likely depend on its interaction with two other tropical systems in the vicinity. First, a weak tropical low designated Invest 96E is centered a few hundred miles to the west of Ida on the Pacific side of Central America. Should this system move northward, the counter-clockwise flow around it would help to steer Ida to the north. Should the system move to the west and out to sea, it could pull Ida west and further inland, resulting in a longer stay over land and probable dissipation. Second, a sub-tropical disturbance is located in the southern Gulf of Mexico and is moving slowly northward. Should this system strengthen as some models are calling for, the flow around it could help to drag Ida northward, as well as increasing its forward motion. In fact, some models are forecasting that the Gulf of Mexico may have to deal with two tropical, or sub-tropical,  systems this upcoming week. The interactions of these three systems are shown below.

Figure 4: Interaaction between Ida and two other disturbances.

In regards tooil and gas rigs, should Ida move into the central Gulf of Mexico, it could certainly pose a threat to the rigs south of Louisiana and Alabama, albeit only as a modest storm. If Ida takes a track further to the east, it will be a much stronger storm, but will be too far away to affect the rigs. Personally, I like the eastern track more right now, as it is climatologically favored and is the direction the models have been trending. Historically, a 40-50 mph tropical storm moving across a rig-dense stretch of coastline may shut-in 20-30% of the rigs. Given that the Gulf of Mexico produces roughly 15-20% of our natural gas, such a shut-in would cut production by about 3-6%/day.

This discussion all becomes academic if Ida doesn’t survive its trek across Central America. If this was August or September, I would be very concerned about the Gulf Coast taking a hit from a Major Hurricane. November is a different story, with over 95% of the season’s activity behind us. In the last 125 years, there are only three examples of  hurricanes making a US landfall in the month of November, with the most recent being Hurricane Kate in 1985. Tropical Storm landfalls, however, are more frequent, with the most recent US-landfalling tropical storm being Tropical Storm Mitch in 1998.

Climatologically, Ida is similar to Katrina—no, not that Katrina, the 1999 version of Katrina (cyclone names cycle every six years), whose track is shown below.

Figure 5: Tropical Storm Katrina, 1999.

Tropical Storm Katrina ‘99 developed in early November as well and took a  similar track as to what is forecast for Ida. However, it didn’t survive to reach the Gulf of Mexico due to extended interaction with land and hostile upper level winds typical of early November. Although November has historically produced some intense tropical cyclones (Mitch ’98, Michelle ’01, and Paloma ’08, to name a few), few can maintain their strength in the Gulf of Mexico so late in the season.

Bottom Line: At present, I give Ida a 40% of dissipating over Central America, a 60% chance of affecting the US as a tropical storm, and a 20% chance of it doing so as a hurricane. With regards to the rigs, both climatology and the current track do not favor a strong hurricane affecting the areas of highest rig density. Obviously this is subject to change. At present, I do not have any energy stocks in my portfolio, having sold the Chesapeake Engery (CHK), Southwestern Energy (SWN), and Flotek (FTK) that I had held over the summer and do not plan to make any purchases. With no other storms on the horizon given the late date, any production shut-in that does occur will be very temporary. However, if you do wish to play this storm, for the love of God stay away from the Natural Gas ETF, UNG! That fund is a surefire way to lose money. Invest in any manner of small-cap, highly volatile NG stocks instead i.e. FTK, NGAS, etc.

Should Ida survive and continue to threaten the US, I will have another update this weekend as the storm prepares to enter the Gulf of Mexico. For more frequent updates, check out my Twitter account: Dr. Cane ‘09.

Regards,

Dr. ‘Cane