Figure 1: Hurricane Ida passing through the Yucatan channel to enter the Gulf of Mexico

This is my second post from the comfortable confines of my iBC retirement.

After emerging off of the Central American coastline Friday evening, Ida took advantage of the bathtub-warm waters of the western Caribbean, quickly intensifying into a 100 mph hurricane, a potent category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. It is now poised to enter the Gulf of Mexico where it has the potential to cause some big-time headaches, not just in the Gulf of Mexico, but up and down the east coast as well, a true “Renaissance Storm.” Personally, I am somewhat surprised by the lack of media attention this storm is receiving. A forecast map for the storm is shown below.

Figure 2: Forecast track for Hurricane Ida, showing a complex weather pattern unfolding  (Updated: Sun, 7pm).

Ida Forecast

The storm has continued to strengthen this morning, with an eye becoming visible on satellite imagery. Hurricane hunter aircraft recently found a pressure reading of 975 millibars in the northern eyewall, which resulted in Ida being upgraded to a 100 mph category 2 storm at 1 pm. Ida has a further 12 hours or so over warm waters and somewhat favorable upper level winds, which may allow it to strengthen into a stronger Category 2 storm with winds of 105-110 mph.

Beginning late tonight, however, it will begin traversing waters that have cooled markedly in the last few weeks and encounter strong wind shear which should induce steady weakening. In fact, as Ida approaches the northern Gulf Coast Tuesday Night/Wednesday morning, there are some indications that it may be losing tropical characteristics and becoming extratropical due to the very low heat content of the waters of the continental shelf. That being said, it is expected that Ida will still be near hurricane strength as it approaches the mouth of the Mississipi River about 100 miles south of New Orleans. As it interacts, and merges, with another area of low pressure, Ida will take a quick right-hand turn as it approaches the coast, sparing Louisiana and making landfall as either a strong tropical storm or an extratropical gale center in Alabama or the Florida Panhandle. In fact, some of the computer models indicate that Ida may turn so fast to the southeast that it misses the panhandle and instead ends up near Tampa!

Hurricane watches have been issued from Grand Isle, La to Mexico Beach, Fl. This does not include New Orleans, which is instead under a tropical storm watch and a myriad of other coastal flood and flash flood watches. Should Ida make landfall as a hurricane, it would be the first hurricane landfall of 2009 and the first US landfalling hurricane in the month of November since Kate in 1985. If it makes landfall as a tropical storm, it would be the first novemeber TS to make a US landfall since Mitch in 1998. Based on the cool waters ahead of it, I personally do not think there is a chance that Ida makes landfall as a hurricane. Perhaps this is just me wishcasting, not wanting anything to prey on the mind of my iBC Fantasy Team QB Drew Brees of the NO Saints to distract him from the four touchdowns he is going to throw against the Panthers today, as he guides Dr. Cane to victory over the Ragin’ Cajuns.

In terms of coastal affects, Ida will likely deliver rainfall amounts of 4-8 inches and wind-gusts of 60-70 mph. Ida has a very small core of strong winds and thus wind damage will not be a primary concern onshore with the storm. The main concerns will be waves, surge, and coastal erosion. The barrier islands of Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida in particular need to watch Ida as it has the potential to send a storm surge of 5-10 feet over these areas, inundating them. Ida will likely send a surge of 3-5 feet over a much larger area of the coastline as well, even well away from where the center makes landfall. There will also be waves of 10-15 feet on top of the surge.

Oil and Gas Rig Forecast

So what does this mean for the rigs? Oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico will definitely be affected by Ida. Figure 1 shows Ida transversing a region of high rig density south of the Mississipi as a hurricane before it turns east. The open-ocean within 100 miles on either side of the storm can expect to see winds of 60-70 mph with high gusts. Even if it does not reach the coast as a hurricane, its interaction with a second piece of energy in the Gulf is forecast to produce large waves over a wide area. Two Mexican oil terminals in the western Caribbean, Coatzacoalcos and Dos Bocas, have already shut-in some production due to 12 foot waves. These two terminals are responsible for the export of 22% of Mexico’s Gulf oil export. Based on the figure below, most of the gas-producing area of the Gulf coast can expect to see waves of greater than 10 feet, with some wave-heights approaching 25 feet.

Figure 3: Maximum wave heights in the Tropical Atlantic (in Meters). Note that most of the Gulf can expect to see waves in excess of 10 feet over the next 3-4 days.

I expect to see at least 40% of the GoM gas to be shut in, which may result in a small energy spike tomorrow. However, a 70-80 mph storm is not strong enough to do any lasting damage to the rigs beyond the shut-in. Also, it is late November and it is very unlikely that there will be any more storms in the Gulf. Thus, I expect any shut-ins will be very temporary and not to significantly affect long-term production. Still, the NG market needs every shut-in it can get to help reduce the current supply glut.

Mid-Atlantic Menace

Finally, it is possible that Ida’s landfall along the Gulf Coast may only be the first half of the tale. Some of the computer models take the energy from Ida and blow it up into a massive coastal storm off of the North Carolina coastline Thursday that moves northward before stalling out off the New Jersey coastline. I have been closely following computer models for about 8 years now, and some of the runs that I have been seeing of this potential storm are among the most intense coastal storms I have ever seen. If it was January rather than November, such as system would result in the Snowstorm To End All Snowstorms. Figure 4 below shows the GFS model for the Thursday timeframe.

Figure 4: Latest run of the GFS computer model showing an intense east-coast low pressure system.

What sort of weather conditions would result if such as storm verifies for Washington, Philadelphia, and New York? Heavy rainfall of 5-7 inches, severe coastal flooding, hurricane force-wind gusts on the coast and a wind-driven snowstorm in the high-elevations of the interior. It would also be a long-duration event as the storm sits and spins just offshore, lasting from Wednesday evening to Friday afternoon. However, the models have been very erratic so it is too early to make any dire predictions until we begin seeing some run-to-run consistency. But seriously, if such a forecast were to verify, it would be one of the stronger storms to affect the east coast in the last 5-10 years. When I first saw the above run, my first thought was Holy Shit! Keep an eye on it.

Regards,

Dr. Cane