Superbowl Weekend is here, but conditions across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will not feel remotely like the 75 degree weather Saints and Colts fans can expect in Miami as their teams face off in Superbowl XLIV.

First off, I dare any member of the media to come up with a better nickname than “The Who Dat? Storm” for this upcoming blizzard. The guys who coined The Perfect Storm, The Storm of the Century, and the old fallback “Blizzard of 20##” don’t have anything on this name. Granted, the storm isn’t exactly going to impact Miami, where the Superbowl is being held and to where the Who Dat? Nation has migrated. And while the storm will certainly impact Superbowl Weekend plans, it will have largely exited the United States by Sunday afternoon. Whatever. Close enough. And as the saying goes, close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and the naming of epic winter storms.

Anyways, the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England are in for a monster storm Friday-through-Sunday. This one really means business. While it may not have the scope of the infamous Blizzard of ’96 or the Superstorm/Storm Of The Century of 1993, the areas that  get pounded, will really get pounded. For those living in Washington and Baltimore, this will probably be one of the biggest, if not the biggest, storm you have seen, or will see, in your lifetime. My tardiness in posting about the storm is not due to uncertainty in the computer models, but rather due to personal busy-ness. On the contrary, the computer models have been displaying excellent temporal consistency over the past 3-4 days and decent model-to-model consistency. This storm is going to happen.

A strong, slow-moving area of low pressure will track northeast across the Gulf Coast States and emerge off of the East Coast by Friday Evening. Precipitation will spread out ahead of the Low Friday morning, reaching Washington and Baltimore by the early afternoon and Philadelphia by Rush Hour. Snowfall will be rather light initially, and with temperatures hovering around freezing, the snow will be slow to accumulate. However, overnight Friday, the low will wrap up and intensify, throwing extremely heavy bands of snow and strong winds from central Virginia through New Jersey. Blizzard Warnings have been hoisted for Delaware and coastal New Jersey, but will probably have to be expanded tomorrow. A map of my expected accumulations is shown below in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Forecast snowfall accumulations for February5-7.

Several cities have a chance to approach or exceed their all-time single storm snowfall records. For these cities, my projected totals are shown below, with the snowfall record in parenthesis.

• Washington, DC: 20-30” (28”—Knickerbocker Storm, 1922)
• Baltimore, Md: 20-30” (26.8”—Presidents Day II Storm, 2003)
• Wilmington: 15-25” (22.2″–Blizzard of ‘96, 1996)
• Philadelphia, Pa: 10-20” (30.7—Blizzard of ’96, 1996)

New York City will be interesting. Both the city itself and Long Island are under winter storm watches for 4-8 inches of snow. However, there will be a very sharp cutoff between those who receive substantial snow and those who receive no snow. This line looks to set up right across the city. The northern suburbs may receive just a dusting, while Staten Island and Newark get much more. Personally, I think New York City will get the short end of the stick on this one and will not see Warning-criteria snowfall. And, of course, even a small shift in the storm track will greatly change forecast totals. Boston looks to be missed by this storm.

Further south, heavy rains of 2-4″ will be the story, exacerbating the already saturated ground and leading to widespread stream and small river flooding in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Most of these areas are under flood watches.

Once the snow exits Saturday evening and Sunday morning, an extensive arctic airmass will set up shop to ensure that whatever does fall will not be going anywhere anytime soon. With an extensive snowpack across the lower 48,  some of the coldest, most persistent arctic air of the season will grip the country from the Dakotas east to Maine through at least next weekend. The average daily departure from normal for the next seven days is shown below in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Projected average daily departure from average for the next 7 days (February 5-11)

Nearly the entire country east of the Rocky Mountains will see below average daily temperatures throughout the week, with a wide swath seeing these temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees cooler than average. That might not sound overwhelming, but when it occurs at least seven days straight across such a wide area, the change in energy demand can be enormous.

Based on both the upcoming storm and the subsequent cold air, today I increased my exposure to natural gas via a purchase of UNG near the day’s lows at $9.65. I also own a smaller position in Chesapeake (CHK), but with the market the way that it is, I have no desire to chase stocks right now. Regardless, I feel quite confident in NG’s prospects short-term.

Regards,

Dr. ‘Cane

Disclaimer: This storm means business. Please rely on official NWS forecast when making travel or safety decision.