You might think that high probability and high risk are mutually exclusive…and they probably should be…but hear me out.  There are 2 parts to this odd-couple trade: both high probability (and I say that without any empirical evidence), but one much riskier than the other.  The main idea is to hedge my directional portfolio that [...]

So the $VIX closed higher for the 2nd straight day, definitely ending that amazing streak of straight downward momentum.  The multi-year support around 17 has held strong.  And while it looks like it wants to bounce a bit more (which should bring some downwards market action along with it), the fact that it has failed [...]

Courtesy of Investopedia:
A price pattern in candlestick charting that occurs when a security trades significantly lower than its opening, but rallies later in the day to close either above or close to its opening price.  This pattern forms a hammer-shaped candlestick.
A hammer occurs after a security has been declining, possibly suggesting the market is attempting to determine [...]

So I wrote half of this post last night, but couldn’t quite publish it, thanks to a lovely and untimely Comcast outage.  Oddly enough, most of it applies today as well, including the $CPCI-system contrarian short.  The ratio yesterday was 0.98 (see below for details).  Today it rose to 1.06 but that is still below [...]

I’ve extolled the awesomeness that is the amazing “Information is Beautiful” website before, especially with regards to their breakdown of left-vs-right…and while his latest work is not quite up to that standard, it is yet another mighty fine & truly beautiful product to peruse in detail.  As always.
Do yourself a favor, take a minute or [...]

The 2nd Annual iBC Fantasy Football League ended its regular season tonight, with yours truly missing the playoffs by 1 win…thanks to ZMoose’s 4-point comeback victory (aided by Flacco’s 3 fucking interceptions and Mason Crosby’s missed field goal, all of which contrived to produce a victory for the Maulin’ Moose vs. the Jayhawks).  But really, [...]

Not long after the CBS GameDay crew had finished one-upping each other in a game of “who can throw the most superlatives at Tim Tebow,” the man in question was reduced to some self-pity on the sidelines.  Shades of Adam Morrison in the NCAA Tournament a few years ago…although he started even before the game [...]

So after yesterday’s spike up to 1.66, the index put:call ratio ($CPCI) has spiked down to 0.72 today!  For the first time since the end of October, we’ve had consecutive days of spikes.  And for the first time since Sep.18-21, these spikes have gone in opposing directions (instead of consecutive spikes in the same direction).  [...]

I’m proud to announce that having mastered the art of posting pictures of girls in bikinis, I have successfully completed V.King Blogging Lessons (VKBL) 101!  Wasting no time, I’m moving right up to VKBL 102 or, as the other students affectionately call it, “Cut & Paste.”
Now, this is possibly the most important part of the [...]

This was brought to my attention by a comment over on The Fly’s tab, but apparently a certain someone who had been 100% short for quite some time now made massive uber-profits on Friday’s 2% dip.
Well, shit.  That guy needs to let me in on his secret.  Cause I’ve been short for just over a [...]