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Dow — but the question is whether or not it’s 1929 (and we’ve got two more years and 80% more downside), or late 1974 (and the indexes will go nowhere for a few years, but there’ll be great trading in individual stocks.)
Hell if I know how it’ll play out.
A 40-year log chart of the S&P is scary. Depending on how much uncertainty you’re willing to accept on a 40-year chart, we’re testing (or have broken, or won’t break until S&P ~700) the trendline marked by the 1974 bottom, the 1982 bottom, and the 2003 bottom.
On that chart, 1987 was well above the trendline, and with the benefit of a decade of hindsight, represented a reversion to the trendline. The 1995-2000 tech bull market represented a trend towards faster economic growth, against which the Asian currency crisis was just a blip. The 2001-2003 bear represented a reversion from the “new era” economic growth to the historical mean.
But today’s move to S&P 900 is the first time I’ve seriously questioned that 40-year trendline. From a purely technical perspective (strip off the symbol from the chart, strip off the time scale), we either bottom out pretty close to here, or we bottom out nowhere.
[...] but I wanted to illiminate emotion the best i could from your decisions. When Cajun said “Name That Chart“. I knew what it was instantly, but then I thought to myself, wow that looks just like USO [...]
If you want to see a scary chart do the one above in yearly candles. Kind of puts this fall in perspective. Holy shit! What I see is the first big red candle of probably 3 big red candles or 3 crows. Notice the 3 crows in ‘00, ‘01, and ‘02 that are bearish. They are not very happy about the bullshit rally from ‘02 to ‘07. I think we bottom at 7,800 for this candle and rally back to about 10800 in May ‘09 and then we start our 2nd big red candle down. Ultimately, I think we bottom at about 2,800 in 2010 and form a slight convex bottom and retest the 2010 low in 2014. Obviously, this predicts a world wide depression and possibly a socioeconomic revolution in the good old USA.
DDog — if we hit 2,800 in 2010 there won’t be any markets left because Dear Leader Obama will have declared them “unnecessary to a free people’s republic.”
Jake, just call em as I see em. Did you run the chart I referenced? DOW hit 7882. My call was 7800. Based on today’s action I don’t think it will hold. The final crash will be next week. Possibly, S&P 788 for an INTERMEDIATE bottom not the BEAR market bottom. SHORT CELG @ $58 today. Going to $46 minimum. BTW, I’m not political. I don’t care which scumball politician is in the white house. They all suck ass.
VIX?
October 9th, 2008 at 5:57 pmDow
October 9th, 2008 at 5:57 pmThat is easy.
Dow Industrials …1907-2008
October 9th, 2008 at 5:58 pmSKF? 1 day
October 9th, 2008 at 5:58 pmYep, it’s the DOW.
Scary isn’t it.
October 9th, 2008 at 6:08 pmEEV or SMN
Did you and your wife make the baby yet.
October 9th, 2008 at 6:16 pmnope, I got snipped. No way I’m bringing a kid into this world.
October 9th, 2008 at 6:24 pmTurn off logarithmic scaling ftlog.
I ran through every single index/stock that I have in my watch lists. Simply stunning, never thought I would be around to see something like this.
October 9th, 2008 at 6:36 pmThe rate of fools trying to jump out of windows
Regards
chuck
October 9th, 2008 at 6:42 pmspx
October 9th, 2008 at 7:35 pmChuck wins.
October 9th, 2008 at 7:41 pmWe are going through the 2002 bottom at some point. Where it stops, I don’t know.
October 9th, 2008 at 7:48 pmDow — but the question is whether or not it’s 1929 (and we’ve got two more years and 80% more downside), or late 1974 (and the indexes will go nowhere for a few years, but there’ll be great trading in individual stocks.)
Hell if I know how it’ll play out.
A 40-year log chart of the S&P is scary. Depending on how much uncertainty you’re willing to accept on a 40-year chart, we’re testing (or have broken, or won’t break until S&P ~700) the trendline marked by the 1974 bottom, the 1982 bottom, and the 2003 bottom.
On that chart, 1987 was well above the trendline, and with the benefit of a decade of hindsight, represented a reversion to the trendline. The 1995-2000 tech bull market represented a trend towards faster economic growth, against which the Asian currency crisis was just a blip. The 2001-2003 bear represented a reversion from the “new era” economic growth to the historical mean.
But today’s move to S&P 900 is the first time I’ve seriously questioned that 40-year trendline. From a purely technical perspective (strip off the symbol from the chart, strip off the time scale), we either bottom out pretty close to here, or we bottom out nowhere.
October 9th, 2008 at 7:50 pmIt’s a 1 day chart of “DORK,” the new double inverse GLORC effectiveness ETF
October 9th, 2008 at 8:09 pmHey don’t go talking trash about the GLORC. What… DO you want to go around saying I’m long DORK? Jeesh.
October 9th, 2008 at 8:14 pm[...] but I wanted to illiminate emotion the best i could from your decisions. When Cajun said “Name That Chart“. I knew what it was instantly, but then I thought to myself, wow that looks just like USO [...]
October 10th, 2008 at 1:20 amIf you want to see a scary chart do the one above in yearly candles. Kind of puts this fall in perspective. Holy shit! What I see is the first big red candle of probably 3 big red candles or 3 crows. Notice the 3 crows in ‘00, ‘01, and ‘02 that are bearish. They are not very happy about the bullshit rally from ‘02 to ‘07. I think we bottom at 7,800 for this candle and rally back to about 10800 in May ‘09 and then we start our 2nd big red candle down. Ultimately, I think we bottom at about 2,800 in 2010 and form a slight convex bottom and retest the 2010 low in 2014. Obviously, this predicts a world wide depression and possibly a socioeconomic revolution in the good old USA.
October 10th, 2008 at 5:32 amDDog — if we hit 2,800 in 2010 there won’t be any markets left because Dear Leader Obama will have declared them “unnecessary to a free people’s republic.”
_______
October 10th, 2008 at 8:58 amLong live The USA.
This is fantastic stuff.
October 10th, 2008 at 10:15 amdow until Oct 2007
October 10th, 2008 at 10:17 amJake, just call em as I see em. Did you run the chart I referenced? DOW hit 7882. My call was 7800. Based on today’s action I don’t think it will hold. The final crash will be next week. Possibly, S&P 788 for an INTERMEDIATE bottom not the BEAR market bottom. SHORT CELG @ $58 today. Going to $46 minimum. BTW, I’m not political. I don’t care which scumball politician is in the white house. They all suck ass.
October 10th, 2008 at 11:42 am