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Technical Analysis with Woodshedder

Examining Market Tops: Nasdaq 1996

by Woodshedder on November 27th, 2007 at 9:40 pm

This chart of the 1996 Nasdaq correction looks very similar to previous corrections. 

From its intraday high in May to its intraday low in July, the market moved down ~20%.

Judging from reader comments, I need an operational definition of “leg down.” While I’ve not settled on one yet, I’m thinking that any period where the market does not make new lows can be considered a bounce, or consolidation, and when those lows are subsequently broken this would represent the start of another “leg down.” Up for discussion is how many days without new lows are required for a period to be a consolidation or bounce. I’m leaning towards 2 days.

One interesting development from this examination of tops is that the Stochastics consistently have nailed the bottom. Combining a Stochastics buy signal with a requirement for volume to be x% greater than the 50 day average when the signal occurs might make for a profitable way to play corrections.

Finally, I want to continue to emphasize that these moves typically come in waves (legs). The selling tends to dissipate after a capitulation day.

 
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