C’mon folks. Really. People are actually lashing out at me for being a bear here. The fact of the matter is that I feel confident in my assessment of the market, and last time I checked, it was a good thing to have convictions.
Also, I’ve been clear about the impending bounce. I wrote about it here in Examining Market Tops, but alas, I was a day early.
Just so everyone knows, I like to debate, argue, and throw jabs. It is fun. However, I don’t wish anyone to lose money. Except for maybe JJ. But probably I would not even wish JJ to lose.
This is a market. There will be differing opinions. Just because I’m a bear here does not mean I’m out to destroy your positions. I could easily argue that my point is to save you money. But then you would have to agree with my assessment of things.
From here the market could keep going up. I do not think that it will. It might very well go sideways until the Fed meets. Thus, I am not going to get aggressively short until I see the upward momentum wearing off, and another down move begin. Even then I will not commit a very large percentage of my capital on the short side.
In short, do not take my bearishness personally. It has nothing to do with you. Honestly, I have watched markets move down and back up for 4 years now, and never really participated on the downside. I have studied and planned for this type of event, and I will stick to my guns.
I may be wrong, or I may be early. Either way, I can sit back and enjoy the banter with everyone as I know I am not going to blow up my account with my small positions. I encourage you to enjoy this time as well, as this seems to be where real traders stick out, and bad traders fade away.
bearshitter.
I hope you get a papercut the next time you wipe your nose.
DJ UPDATE: Fed’s Fisher: Fed Facing A Policy Dilemma Right Now.
(Updates with additional details)
By Michael S. Derby
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said Wednesday the central bank is facing tough policy choices as it works to control inflation and ensure troubled financial markets don’t derail the broader economy.
“We have to be extremely careful in terms of navigating between these shoals” of troubled markets and increased price pressures, the official said in a speech before a local group in Amarillo, Texas.
Fisher said the financial system “has had some setbacks, and appears over the last several months to have had some further setbacks, pushing us back to towards where we were in August” when the troubles first flared. Meanwhile, even with “a risk for substantially slow growth,” the official said the risks of higher prices pressures are decidedly real. He described the monetary policy outlook as a “dilemma.”
Fisher added: “I don’t see presently a recession on the horizon.” But on the more positive side, “we are also encouraged by the fact we see risk being more realistically priced, rather than fantastically priced.”
But ultimately, “I don’t think we are done in terms of getting where we need to get” in containing inflation, at a time where “we have to have a healthy working financial markets.”
Fisher spoke amid a challenging time for central bankers. While markets have for some time believed the Fed would cut interest rates on a darkening outlook for both the economy and financial markets, many Fed officials have suggested little appetite for an imminent lowering in rates.
But on Wednesday, a dovish speech by Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn opened the door to an easing, after the official fretted about a worsening of market conditions and suggested he is open to a rate cut when policy makers meet Dec. 11.
Fisher isn’t currently a voting member of the interest rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
Like some other Fed officials, Fisher said he would be watching the data between now and the next policy meeting. “We need to do what is right for the economy – period,” he said, although he added: “the Fed will not be bullied by markets.”
Fisher also said “we have to be very mindful” about the impact of the falling dollar on the economy. The official offered an explanation for why the dollar may have run into so much trouble, saying “I think it’s largely derived not so much from a lack of confidence in the United States economy – we are still seeing significant capital inflows in the United States, thank God – but from the fact the interest rate differentials are so markedly clear” between U.S. monetary policy makers, and those in Europe, for example.
-By Michael S. Derby, Dow Jones Newswires, 201-938-4192; [email protected]
(Bob Sechler in Amarillo, Texas, contributed to this report.)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 28, 2007 15:14 ET (20:14 GMT)
totally agree – you can’t have a nice head-and-shoulders without that last push up from the neckline to complete the right-hand shoulder
The woodshedder bottom continues……
LOL. It can’t be a Woodshedder bottom unless I’m net short. I’M NOT!
Andy, it will be a beautiful thing….
Ain’t nuttin like a bear market rally.
This is “the Fly Burns in Rome”, bottom.
Absolutely Juice. He will not soon live that down.
Woodshedder Bottom lives!
woodie,
I notice the rather sad demise of Bilderburg mansions, obviously couldn’t cut the blogging mustard as it were, or was he simply repo’ed?
jog on
grant
Grant, I think Bilderburg was washed out to sea.
I think he was caught leaning the wrong way…on his yacht, or course.
bilderberg paid me 18k to tell you guys assuredly that he was “cool.”
Now that I have cashed the check, I can tell you safely he is “not”
Bilderberger wants the markets to crash so “they” can institute the New World Order along with the boys from the CFR and Skull & Bones. Jake told me so.
Yes, I am Bilderberg’s hand maiden
Wood — do not let these lemmings get you down, man. A Dow Theory sell signal does not come around every “correction.”
I am kind of shocked that Le Fly is still relatively bullish. He must not have the “true Bilderberg Connections.”
In other words, he is privvy to the “false Bilderberg connections” that keep that side of the world spinning.
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