I told you there was top in Ag, in this post: I’m Calling a Top in Agriculture.
If you had shorted, the next morning, every stock charted in that post, every position would be in the money.
Today, [[MOS]] and [[POT]] closed just beneath their 50 day averages. I think there are still some asshole dip buyers out there. My recommendation is to wait to short those names. One of two things will happen. They will make a run towards highs again, or they will break down further. I’d like to see a breakdown, and then an oversold rally back to the 50 day, before getting a big short position in either stock. These big momo names will often “rage, rage against the dying of the light.” Better to let the “heros” put their accounts on the line. You want to wait until they are weak.
The following stocks are weaker ag. names and should be sold with a vengeance.
I would like to sell these tomorrow, but options expiration makes me a tad nervous. Any opinions on trading tomorrow vs. Monday?
I have felt that MON is over-priced for quite some time. Funny, I was looking the world over for longs awhile back and I was like, man, there isn’t one big cap that I can go long on. Then I started looking at DD. I was like, why is this stock at a P/E of only 14? After some further work I found that they have significant debt & overhead. Pretty sad, even after a 15% decline across the board I could only find 4 mid-caps out of thousands that were marginal buys. We have a long way to go, the question is, when?
The only advantage between today and Monday would be if you were selling the calls. I see a greater than usual amount of erosion on the Monday after expiration.
That said, the volatility in these names doesn’t warrant it.
I had some March MOS 95 puts that I pulled the trigger on this morning at $5… fuckers have lost $3.10 in value since then… whew!
Sausages, is that you (aka “Breakfast Meat”) above in “linked sausages?”
Sausages, is that you (aka “Breakfast Meatâ€) above in “linked sausages?â€
Yep.