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Technical Analysis with Woodshedder

Statistics Favor the Bears

by Woodshedder on April 21st, 2008 at 10:13 pm

On Friday I doubled my (QID: 98.60 0.00%), (SDS: 127.97 0.00%), and (DXD: 99.21 0.00%) positions. These ultra-short etfs are very oversold and due for a bounce. I am now net short the indexes by the largest amount, year-to-date.

If these trades turn out the same way as the recent testing suggests they might, I can expect an 88% win rate and an average gain of 5%. (Check out Pennings of an Analyst for the original test). Note though that the Stockfetcher tests are rudimentary and exploratory. I have not worked out or tested an entire system for this strategy, but I believe in the signals enough to take these trades.

DXD

(DXD: 99.21 0.00%)

SDS 

(SDS: 127.97 0.00%)

QID

(QID: 98.60 0.00%)

The strong, bullish days of the past week have set up a situation where a pullback is likely. The average drawdown of the trades tested was -3.2%. The DXD trade is currently drawn down -3.7%

 
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