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Technical Analysis with Woodshedder

Crack My Spread: TSO

by Woodshedder on April 22nd, 2008 at 1:48 am

Some of you today started talking about the refiners, and specifically (TSO: 6.80 0.00%).

I do not understand why the refiners have been punished as crude has moon shot. I do not know what a crack spread is. Basically, I rarely trade oil, because I always seem to lose, and obviously I do not know dick about the fundamentals.

Anyway, I know the technicals.

TSO is interesting, technically.

TSO Weekly

 The 3-year weekly above shows a nice divergence setting up on the MACD. The MACD is my favorite indicator for identifying possible bottoms in stocks that have persisted in downtrends. Also, volume is swelling, which may show capitulation or actual buying interest.

TSO

The daily chart shows that the MACD has already crossed. Stochs have turned up. RSI(2) is a tad overbought. A natural target is near the previous April high and the 50 day average. If you think the fundamentals have changed, maybe you stay in the trade longer.

Buying the stock near 27.50, with a stop below 25.00 and a target of 34.00 provides near 3:1 reward to risk.

Now, can somebody explain to me why refiners have been punished? Also, what the hell is the crack spread?

Forgive me as I’m lazy and ignorant.

 
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