How To Crack Corn
May 19, 2008 – 11:59 pm
Hat tip to TraderCaddy. [[DBA]] is how one cracks corn, unless you want to wait a quarter or so for [[BWLD]] to reap the benefits. As shown below, DBA gets one exposure to Corn futures of 25%, if I’m reading the holdings correctly.
| Company | Symbol | % Assets |
| Cbt Wheat (Fut) | N/A | 2.93 |
| Corn (Fut) | N/A | 14.6 |
| Corn Future Jul08 | N/A | 9.25 |
| Red Wheat Fut Mge Jul08 | N/A | 1.61 |
| Soybean (Fut) | N/A | 17.74 |
| Soybean Future Jan09 | N/A | 9.48 |
| Sugar (Fut) | N/A | 26.3 |
| Wheat (Fut) | N/A | 9.57 |
| Wheat Future(Kcb) Dec 08 | N/A | 3.14 |
| Wheat Future(Kcb) Jul08 | N/A | 10.43 |
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As shown in the chart, DBA has formed a bearish descending triangle. A break of $35.00 seems as if it could be catastrophic, as I see no support beneath that level. Also, the farmer always gets the shaft. Always. No way the American government passes a law giving 10 billion in farm subsidies to farmers AND crop prices continue to rise. I have no position in DBA, but I am considering entering a short position, at the open of Tuesday, May 20th. |
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By far, the biggest beneficiaries of “cracked corn” are the ethanol producers: PEIX, MGPI, GPRE, AVR and my fav VSE.
May 20th, 2008 at 12:09 amAdd BIOF
May 20th, 2008 at 12:10 amel-midge,
True…I almost want to look at your pick’s, but won’t for fear of total disillusionment.
jog on
May 20th, 2008 at 12:13 amduc
No need, little man.
You can watch from the sidelines, while the big boys play.
Then, after the fact, you can opine about how great you are.
Actually, these pick’s [sic] may suit you quite well. As inputs drop, margins explode.
A fairly simple trade.
May 20th, 2008 at 12:16 amel-midge,
Can I really watch a true market professional ply his trade?
I feel so privileged to be able to learn from such a masterful stock operator.
As inputs drop margins explode…wow, such analysis, I’m almost speechless. I’ll be sure to make a note in my margin in regards to that gem.
A simple trade, for a simpleton.
jog on
May 20th, 2008 at 12:20 amduc
Duc, as per our agreement, you show respect and platitudes on my blog, unless you are first subjected to disprespect.
In this case, you have erred.
May 20th, 2008 at 12:21 amThus far, this simpleton is up 15% in two days, while you took two between the eyes on POT.
You have zero credibility or track record, regarding investments.
Ask around. Everyone knows you are a little man, with no balls to make recommendations. All you do is pester.
Men like you are easy to irritate, easy to dismiss.
You must be sad, being such an unimportant small man.
May 20th, 2008 at 12:24 amWood,
With regard to your post, first, this is a longstanding situation, second, do you seriously consider el-midges post to be constructive in ANY shape or form?
However, I am quite willing to accede to your wishes.
jog on
May 20th, 2008 at 12:26 amduc
Accede his wishes.
You have no backbone, do you?
When was the last time you had the balls to take what you want?
May 20th, 2008 at 12:27 amDuc, whether Fly’s comment is constructive is immaterial.
With all due respect (and believe me, my blog could use the extra clicks, so I’m a fool for asking), take it elsewhere.
May 20th, 2008 at 12:28 amI am going for a drive.
I’ll be back to punch Ducati in the nose, later.
May 20th, 2008 at 12:29 amI should add, Duc, you know I welcome your thoughts and constructive input. However, I can not stomach the venom, and since you and I have managed a quite wholesome relationship for some time now, lets keep it that way.
May 20th, 2008 at 12:31 amWood,
Not immaterial at all, he want’s to dish it out, but can’t really take it. His initial comment on this thread was inflammatory and looking to pick an argument.
Moot point.
I’ll as previously stated, honour our agreement.
jog on
May 20th, 2008 at 12:33 amduc
Very nice looking short Woodshedder, thx. Next support is 200 and psych support @ whole number 30. Safe on the upside with resistance ~ 38. Reminds me of GOOGs late 2007 top. I also like GAIA (fruity name), APOL and NITE possibly could set up short.
May 20th, 2008 at 1:01 amThanks Duc.
As always, should your character be maligned on my blog, or should you be addressed directly or through innuendo, feel free to let lose [sic] on the perpetrator.
As always, penetrating insight is welcome, free from ad hominems, of course.
May 20th, 2008 at 1:05 amG- funny thing about GAIA.
I think it is the gay dinosaur’s stock of the year for 2008. I do not know how to embed links, so let me help him out so he can find my slander.
http://www.ibankchange.com
May 20th, 2008 at 1:06 amFuck you negative karma fuckers.
May 20th, 2008 at 1:07 amI know these stocks have been doing great but PCLN, RIMM(rising wedge) and AAPL might be fun to short.. very risky but some decent reward if one is right.
May 20th, 2008 at 1:09 amG- of course you are right about the 200 day providing next level of support. I was in a hurry. Good catch.
May 20th, 2008 at 1:09 amNew South Wales Needs More Rain to Sow Grain Crop (Update1)
By Madelene Pearson
May 20 (Bloomberg) — Australia’s New South Wales, usually the nation’s second-largest grain grower, hasn’t yet received enough rain to sow this year’s crop, AgRisk Management Pty said.
“The sort of rain we need to commence sowing, like an inch to an inch and a half, just hasn’t occurred,” Brett Stevenson, managing director of the Sydney-based forecaster said today by phone. The state’s southern, south-western and central tablelands regions are still too dry to plant, he said.
Drought conditions had spread in New South Wales and rain was “crucial” within three weeks, the state’s agriculture minister said May 12. Wheat production in Australia, the world’s sixth- largest exporter of the grain, may almost double to 26 million tons this year, the government forecaster said in March.
“With little rain to speak of on the 14-day weather forecast, sowing will start to be pushed past the traditional optimum window in the drier areas,” GrainCorp Ltd., eastern Australia’s largest grain handler, said today in an e-mailed statement. “This talked about 26 million ton crop is starting to look less likely as the sowing window closes.”
Farmers prefer rain this month to plant wheat, barley and canola, though some planting can be delayed until about July. The harvest starts from about October.
Milling wheat futures for January delivery rose for a third day on the Australian stock exchange, gaining A$11.50, or 3.3 percent, to A$360 a metric ton.
Frost Risk
Sowing crops later reduces the yield potential and can expose crops to risks such as frosts, AgRisk Stevenson said.
“The big grunt areas of the crop growing areas in New South Wales, where the big tons are grown, have not really received sowing rain,” he said. “The crop could still be fine. We just don’t have that positive start we would like at this time.”
Southern areas of Western Australia, the nation’s biggest grain growing state, had as much as 50 millimeters (2 inches) of rain last week, Shoni Dawkins from the National Climate Center said yesterday. South Australia and Victoria states had 15 millimeters to 50 millimeters across widespread areas, while in New South Wales and Queensland as much as 20 millimeters fell in regions near the Great Dividing Range, he said.
May 20th, 2008 at 1:10 amWood,
There was also an article today [somewhere] regarding a switch from corn to soybean…forget the reason
jog on
May 20th, 2008 at 1:13 amduc
Duc, farmers in Virginia are loving life. Great conditions this year. Oddly, I am seeing wheat replace alfalfa for the early season. This will be harvested very soon and will likely be replaced with corn or soybeans. I am not a farmer, but after driving the same 40 mile stretch of road through rural Va, and knowing some of the farmers personally, I can tell you that they are on top right now.
May 20th, 2008 at 1:17 am