Don’t Think, Buy GLD
July 30, 2008 – 4:50 pm
Had you bought this low RSI2 setup over the history of the [[GLD]] ETF, you would have had a winning trade 25 out of 34 trades, or 73.5%.
Sell when RSI2 > 80.
Choose a stop based on whatever you want, but obviously, the 200 day average and the trendline must not be violated.
Contrarian call. You are rarely wrong on these.
July 30th, 2008 at 5:03 pm$85-$87 is the buy in price with gold at $875-$890 an oz.
This time I predict it will blow past the 80 RSI2…
Where is the public’s gold?
July 30th, 2008 at 8:19 pmwoodrow? gold up, gen. market down? Like in the next few days? is this what Fly means by “contrarian” play?
July 30th, 2008 at 10:45 pmBuylo, don’t think about why or why not. Just do it. This setup has a 73.5% win rate. Still, you must set a stop and honor it.
Avg. days in winning trades = 7.6
Avg. days in losing trades = 11.78
So you’ll know pretty quickly which way this is going to go.
I’m not sure what Fly meant, but I like your interpretation.
July 30th, 2008 at 11:00 pmHope your right, wood - I bought some GLD calls yesterday when gold dropped to 900. I also bought the previous day, so I’m still down, but I can feel the momentum changing!
July 31st, 2008 at 4:51 amThat’s my key setup for today. Mega coincidence! ha! In fact, if you want more juice for your money, check out DGP.
I also like GG right here — at the 200-day moving avg. They report earnings BMO today.
-Phil
July 31st, 2008 at 7:24 amWoodroe, well, the gold trade did not work out so well today. Note aside wood, check out Retracementlevels.blogspot.com, his work on the Fibonacci stats look very interesting even to a novice like me. Could be a good indicator to supplement the RSI 2 stuff and/or as a stand alone as a help you beat the odds and the market. Will appreciate your opinion once you’ve had a good look at it.
July 31st, 2008 at 11:10 pmBuylo, I’ll check out the blog. Thanks for telling me about it.
Re: GLD, it closed up today, no? You’ll notice from the chart that it likes to do that gap stuff. Don’t worry about it. The trade was not meant to last only one day.
July 31st, 2008 at 11:27 pm[...] I will start with my trade in GLD, as I immortalized the setup in the post, Don’t Think, Buy GLD. [...]
August 12th, 2008 at 11:27 pm