I was dead wrong. Fly was right, as usual.
I made my first discretionary trades in over a month today. I was able to get out of work to come home and watch the action. I ended up buying [[DXD]] and [[SDS]] .
The market is very sick. Fed action is likely. I feel the likelihood of a crash is very high.
More analysis to come later this evening.
Hey, you still were right about ARD.
Now we are even.
lol…a lot of people were thinking about intermediate term tradeable double bottom around there including myself. It was a good try, but also cost me some money for not leaning on the short side. FXP is a beast.
Woody:
How would you define “crash”?
This is so similar to everything I read about great edepression. Banking crisis, rumors of illiquidity and bank raids (in one form or another), set up by “roaring 20s” (dot com boom?), and over leverage.
Bring on the soup lines.
anybody up for shorting GLD at the 200 day = 88?
$NAUD says we bounce Thursday or FRI, I like FRI the best, though.
ZenProfit, I would define crash as an intraday move of more than 10% down.
Still, that is subjective. 8% down would really suck and would likely still be a crash.
We’re getting rather used to 4% down days.
Wood,
You weren’t wrong, the setup was there. It just didn’t happen today.
These are extraordinary times; keep posting your calls as you see them. Your insight is appreciated whether they pan out or not.
Fly,
Thanks for the BAC hedge suggestion the other day. It worked out well.
i agree. i think wood had the setup right, but the situation is so extreme that some quant measures break down. kind of like a black hole.
everybody wants cash. that’s where we’re at.
i’m actually long one name – FCX – which i bought shortly after the open yesterday. i was going to sell it this afternoon, but i held on, since it seems to still trade with metals futures. i’ll probably have to look at kicking it tomorrow, though. i feel like i’m pressing my luck.
Thanks guys.
I’ll have to do some thinking and testing and see if I can’t quantify this sort of bottom buying so we can get a somewhat more objective idea of how often this type of setup works.
Last downturn was slow and steady, lasted about 2 months and dropped a significant amount.
This downturn is shaping up to be fast and furious. So far this down leg is relatively insignificant amount, dwarfed by huge swings in volatility, making it seems like the world is ending. panic is present unlike the last time.
Then again this market is full of trickery…
Ahem… Fly and Jake were right.
You were merely temporarily traitorous. The fine we’ve extracted from your 401 k should be sufficient punishment.
All is forgiven.
__
kicked my FCX this morning. caught a few pts on the turn at 60 the other day. 100% cash right now. i think i may stay that way until the next ‘event’. unless AAPL trades down to the teens. i’ll buy it there. steve or no steve, AAPL is worth more than 115.
actually, i may visit an apple store today or tomorrow and pump some info out of them before i do anything.