Surveying the Battlefield

We are accustomed to seeing stocks trade up after brief periods of being down. Today we saw a titanic move higher in China related stocks, with the $FXI up 5.6%. Leaders included $BABA $BILI $BEKE $NTES and many others. But China, like so many things in Asia, is complete fake, made of straw. All Chinese rallies are to be sold. To think not is to pretend.

We also saw strength in retail names like $M, $AMZN, $W and $JWN. The core consensus the consumer is still consuming and stagflation is nonsense, as per Powell.

In general, it was a very risk appropriate day, as high beta stocks jumped more than 2.6%. But we saw a little weakness into the final hour. As a matter of fact, this trend is persistent and we measure it inside Stocklabs.

Sell the open, fade the close. This makes for a miserable tape for those who prefer to adjust towards the end of the day. You are quite literally buying into a vat of nothingness, sellers dominating the tape and lethargy rules dominion. Then you get the open dip at 9:30 and next thing you know your buy the close, sell the open gambit is a disaster. This calls for a change in buying patterns.

Everyone is waiting on $AAPL earnings and I am not excited for them, due to their lack of innovation and momentum. The simple fact of the matter is, the great Apple run happened but now it’s over.

Some notable earnings winners in the AHs include: $SQ $PCTY $BKNG $DKNG

downside action in $NET $AAON $EXPE $COIN $FND

If you can, avoid all earnings plays, unless you have some insider trading information that you can act upon without going straight to jail. Pro tip: avoid using options for your schemes.

I ended +88bps, 19% cash with a pretty conservative allocation.

Before I update you on my trading room drama, I am pretty close to changing the overall theme of the blog, just to change it up. It would entail more of a macro look at the economy and markets, diving into sectors and focusing on key parts of the market instead of personal trading. I think it’s well established here that I trade a lot and have better than average skills. It would help me if I was tasked with some headier research, perhaps getting back into listening to conference call and leaving notes here for the blog.

I recovered part of my losses from yesterday, +111bps at midday and in a 100% cash position. I went to cash because I was fortunate to land some solid trades whilst in traveling from Boston. I am home now and need to get situated.

Back when I was younger I’d feel obligated to get all of my losses back right away, take risk to win and lucky for me that would happen most of the time. But this is not the proper way to recover losses, lest you have insider information and sure thing trades.

I have reset myself and will now work at making incremental gains, trading carefully, being mindful of the earnings season and the potential pitfalls that can harangue me.

Some blogs of mine are dripping with sarcasm, invectives foisted at my enemies both real and pretend. But I won’t do that today. I could offer an excuse for my poor trading, especially since I was in a plane and then moving furniture to storage when the FOMC meeting occurred.  While they are reasons for my disconnected nature of today’s -478bps debacle, it it certainly not an excuse.

I give others harsh criticisms when they do poorly and brook zero quarter for weaknesses. I do not expect any given to me now. I won’t cope and explain how I’m still up almost 5% for the year. It’s all shit tiered thinking and I should know better. I pride myself in my profession and feel comfortable enough to tell others to look towards me as an authority of what to do in the market.

This is me losing badly. It doesn’t happen often but it does happen. In the past I traded myself back and lived happily ever after. But past results are not indicative of the future and I only say that as a warning to myself to not rest on laurels, with the mindset of thinking “it’ll all work out in the end.”

No one is coming to save me and not a single one of you reading owe me anything, in spite of my excellence over the years. Finance is a “what have you done for me lately” sort of business. We mock and deride former stars who fell and collapsed into ruin. I will do better and offer my sincerity apologies for this inexcusable performance.

I’m on an airplane now to Boston and I’m long with a hedge and down 3.3%, on top of the 2.4% yesterday — making this one of my singular drawdowns in perhaps decades.

Into the Fed, I have a feeling markets will rally but cannot take my hedge off for fear of a rout. I shouldn’t be long anything now and ought to be in cash — but here I am.

Into the closing hours I’ll likely pare down my positions for a much smaller footprint, as I’ll need to hit a few singles before even thinking about homeruns. Today’s albatross was a combo of $AMD $EL $PYPL and $SOXL — all great long term investments just having a really bad session.

My YTD gains sit under 7% now.

I’d invite you to join Stocklabs, but then I’d be doing injury to you, trading with the worst people on the planet. Fuckers watching every move you make, pointing out all of the losses and inadequacies. And on good days, they’re all up 10%, perfect traders. On bad days, they’re flat, leaving them with enough comfort and time to make a spectacle of your losses, especially when they occur in the after hour’s session.

I entered the close long $SBUX and $AMD and doubled sized $SOXL all because I enjoy holding onto stocks before they miss earnings and see their fucking shares COLLAPSE onto my head, cracking it open and letting my brains leak out onto the garage floor.

My losses were already horrendous for the day and really for the past 2 weeks, going from +6% in April to DOWN 2.5%. My YTD returns are now under 10% and I am all but buried in a grave that I dug for myself. I am paired nicely with some $TZA and $UVIX tonight, but not enough to stem the tide and withdraw from the horrors I am about to face. All of my bad deeds throughout life are coming into the fray now and I will soon pay for my transgressions, in front of an audience of bastards who enjoy to see me suffer.

What have I done in my life of 47 years to deserve such treatment?

Like I said earlier, I just wanted everything to work out in my favor, come to work, make a few trades, add zeroes to my net worth. But now my net worth is heading in reverse and at this rate, I’ll never make money again, perhaps en route to zero. Who knows when or how the losses will stop? I might need to sacrifice something or someone. All I know is, these sort of catastrophes afflict me from time to time and I really wasn’t taking my bad trading serious until now. I just figured it’d sort out somehow and I’d magically reappear online again at RECOURD highs, talk a bunch of shit, and then do whatever the fuck I do every night.

But instead of that happening, I am trapped in the after hours session from hell, DOWN ANOTHER 130BPS facing the pangs of error and weak minded allocations. I felt that my luck was due to reverse but apparently I am just getting started.

I gave it the olde college try lads. I went out there patient and waited for my fortunes to improve, only to instead become bedraggled with losses, now sitting at down 195bps for the session.

I had it all planned out. I could see it happening inside of my head, me heading out into the marketplace gallant and brave, making trades like the wind and bringing home the bacon very pleased with myself. When in squalls like this, down 7% from my recourd highs, I often think “is this it, am I over?” I am aware of the fact that I’ve had a good run but like all things it will end one day and whatever magical touch I had to bank coin will one day be lost. It’ll be like watching old Babe Ruth on the Braves striking out, having young punks run to first base in his stead.

I haven’t shorted into today’s tape because if I did and if I was wrong, I’d never be able to reverse my losses and that would cement April a loser for me. But during the recent small spike we enjoyed intraday, I sold many of my securities, raising cash to 58%. I could go out there again and give it the olde college try, but that would be akin to taking freshly printed money and tossing it into a lit fireplace.

As much as it pains me to say, this is not my day and it hasn’t been my month and I might in fact be over, never to trade well enough to get to recourd highs again. Who knows?! Either way, we had good times and it was a heck of a run.

The worst part of the market this month was $BTC. After running up and on its way to $100,000, Bitcoin has the audacity to collapse 11% in April. Sophisticates will look you dead in the eye with a keen sense of certainty and tell you to “buy all you can of the Bitcoin “ for it is heading to $500,000.

It’s very hard to reason with Bitcoin maxis, especially since their ideas are rooted in fantasy. Also, they’ve been proven nothing but right so far. Just last year $BTC was in the dumps and it looked very over and then it doubled. Now the coiners walk around with a meaningful purpose, condescending to the equity traders below them because they know what no one else does: The Bitcoin is heading to $500,000.

It all comes down to tomorrow’s trade, Sirs. I’ve had two down months in the past year and for good reason.

April of last year I was on vacation in Europe, completely distracted. In August I was maligned with an ACL tear and it led to my losses. I have excuses for nearly all losses, since under normal circumstances, I’d never book a loss.

I am all but assured to book profits tomorrow, locking in another gain for the month. So you know, I finished the session 109% long , without a care in the world. All of the bear arguments fall on deaf ears here, as I am convinced we are due to rally.

Seeing the market wanting higher without much volatility, I’ll give an update on House Fly, especially since it’s a topic that is near and dear to my heart, all about me.

We’ve been busy gardening for the spring and as a result I’ve also been afflicted by seasonal allergies. There is no way around them, no matter how many different pills of version of honey I take. I am to be afflicted.

Girl Fly is finishing year 3 in film school in her attempts at entering the degeneracy of Hollywood and ANTIFA FLY year 2, where he’ll be transferring to his 3rd college next year in 3 years. Fly Jr is doing well in his career and in his two side hustles, but has yet to marry and produce any grandchildren.

I’ve slowed down on reading since I’ve been studying to re enter the field of money management. Long story short, I am being under utilized and need to satiate some desires. I have been listening to Audibles during showers and have nearly completed Chernow’s Washington. I am moving onto Hamilton next.

In our long drives to and fro picking up ANTIFA FLY, Mrs Fly and I have been listening to old Art Bell Coast to Coast shows. What fucking lunacy.

On the weekends, I moved away from red wine into artisanal cocktails, because why the fuck not? I have a great recipe for an Earl Gray Martini. Here goes.

Take half a bottle of gin and infuse with 2 bags of earl gray for 2 hours. Do not infuse longer than 3, otherwise you’ll make it bitter.

We are making a martini but with froth for mouth feel. Typically you’d need an egg white for it but I hate the smell of the wet dog egg and found an excellent alternative: aquafaba, which is chick pea water. Make sure it’s unsalted chickpeas you fucking morons.

2 parts Earl Gray gin
1 part lemon
1 part simple syrup
1 part aquafaba

Dry shake contents to attain froth and then add ice and shake again. If you are dry shaking, just know that your tins might leak, since it’s the cold from the ice cubes that seals it. I’ve found that using a hand mixer works well enough for dry shaking methods. Mix with ice, strain into martini glass rimmed with sugar and garnish with lemon peel.

That was gay. Moving on.

I depart for Boston on Wednesday just for a day to bring back Girl Fly and help her move her things out. I’m not a fan of cities but if I had to live in one, Boston is ok.

Other than trading, going to the gym 3 days per week, and the occasional cigar or estate pipe smoke, House Fly is doing pretty good. I have no health complaints, other than last year’s ACL tear which I cured without surgery. I haven’t played tennis since last year, but intend to go back soon since I enjoy it.

One major change in my life is I’ve been going back to church over the past year after 20+ years being absent from it and I must admit to really liking it. I want to be clear, however, I am not even sure I believe in God but am open to suggestion. I went to church regularly as a boy and then when I got older I eschewed it because I was more or less an atheist. However, there is an appeal to the Catholic faith and I do enjoy a good sermon and the people there all trying to improve themselves in a wholesome way, in a clean and well lit church.

Writing hasn’t been much fun, because I do not like to write about politics anymore and the market has been without much drama. I really do prefer broken elevator pin action, inspiring me to conjured up stories to instill fear in the reader. Nowadays, wealth creation is on the menu and the sell offs are narrow and shallow.

Ok, back to work.

A tricky session for me so far. Don’t ask me how, but I’m flat for the day and was just down over 50bps a short while ago, as my pastiche of stocks in possession didn’t do me any favors. Part of the issue is this $BITX position, which is double long $BTC. For the last several weeks $BTC has traded like absolute shit and it’s very tempting to buy more into this correction, since the correlation to the market is fairly consistent and markets look pretty damn good.

One notable breakout is $TSLA, up more than 10% on news they’ll be getting the nod for the Chinese taxi market. Whatever, the stock was really cheap and now all of you Greg’s who live to hate on Elon will pay the fucking price, in spades, for your insolence.

Moving on, I have a semi hedge on now via $SOXS and will likely close it out soon, since markets look ok. A little earlier today the semis were weak and they will are the weakest part of this fledgling rally.

At any rate, back to work. Those digits aren’t going to get into your accounts with you just sitting there eating donuts.